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Forex brokers expect “little change” after FOMC minutes May 16 at 17:45 GMT
ForexSpace.com - As the markets wait for the minutes of the FOMC’S April meeting, the prevailing wind is calm. For most forex traders and brokers, top of the agenda for analysis will be any indication of the Fed’s intentions for further QE over the coming months. But with the greenback on the up as a result of an increasingly turbulent euro zone, there is unlikely to be much deviation in light of the minutes.
According to live currency charts at the time of writing, the USD was trading higher against the GBP, yet remained unchanged against most other majors. Increasingly risk-averse investors have been taking refuge in the USD, with its traditional inverse relationship with gold having become more prevalent in recent weeks.
No reverse for USD uptrend
Kathleen Brooks, research director at FOREX.com, does not anticipate much market movement as a result the announcement from Washington later today: “I don’t expect the minutes to have much effect on the markets, although the last round of minutes were dollar positive, and any hint of hawkishness from the Fed is likely to be jumped on by the greenback bulls. A recent FOMC meeting saw monetary policy remain unchanged, leaving gold and silver untouched, while Bernanke left the possibility of further asset purchases to support the U.S. economy open. Speaking at the time, he stated that the Fed’s “intention is to maintain highly accommodative stance of policy for the foreseeable future.”
The Fed will release minutes at 19:00BST, when markets will already have digested the news that US house building was better-than-expected for the month of April, according to data from the Commerce Department. Housing starts rose 2.6 percent to a 717,000 annual rate from March's revised 699,000 pace that was stronger than previously reported. At the time of writing – just hours after the data was released – US equity-index futures had already advanced, providing strong signs that S&P's 500 Index may snap a three-day drop.
Despite the emergence of such positive data ahead of the release and the strength of the dollar in ailing European markets, Ashraf Laidi (pictured), Chief Global Strategist at City Index/FX Solutions, still fancies trader eyes to turn to the FOMC minutes. “The key event will be the FOMC meeting minutes that are due at 2:00 pm. Considering the statement and the press conference on April 25 it is unlikely that the markets will be surprised.”
Further echoing the prevailing trader sentiment surrounding the announcement, Laidi added: “Given the slightly improved FED projections, today's minutes are not likely to reverse the recent USD uptrend.”
Gold down
Amid the cool American speculation, the yellow brick continued to drop Wednesday. The metal was dragged to a fresh four-and-a-half-month low on concerns that a so-called Grexit is on the cards. Investors appear to be continuing to choose the USD as an alternative to the traditional safe-haven as prospects for gold appear shaky.
Gold was last at $1,536.78-1,536.86 per ounce, down $7.47 from yesterday’s close, and now faces a fourth day of losses. It bottomed out at $1,526.97 earlier, its lowest since December 29. Speaking in confidence, one leading forex broker: “The sell-off continues on a stronger dollar. Gold has not been behaving as a safe haven in recent weeks - it has lost that appeal.
“Support is being driven by sentiment in the market and general sentiment keeps changing on a daily basis.”
Sarah Cox, Staff Writer
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101.8500 | -1.2900 | -1.25% |
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1.2934 | 0.0081 | 0.63% |
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1.5103 | 0.0059 | 0.39% |
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1,390.8300 | 21.3600 | 1.56% |
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22.6189 | 0.3536 | 1.59% |
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0.9675 | -0.0116 | -1.18% |
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0.9740 | 0.0046 | 0.47% |
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1.0304 | -0.0067 | -0.65% |
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1.2514 | -0.0070 | -0.55% |
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14.4042 | 0.0025 | 0.02% |
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0.8145 | 0.0078 | 0.96% |
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0.1288 | 0.0000 | 0.00% |
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