<?xml version="1.0"?>
                     <?xml-stylesheet href="rss.xsl" type="text/xsl" media="screen"?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" >
					<channel>
						<title>ForexSpace</title>
						<link>http://www.forexspace.com/</link>
						<atom:link href="http://www.forexspace.com/feeds/news/" rel="self" type="text/rss+xml" />
						<description>Forex trading platform.</description>
						<language>en-uk</language>
						<image>
							<title>ForexSpace</title>
							<url>http://www.forexspace.com/assets/logo.png</url>
							<link>http://www.forexspace.com/</link>
							<width>219</width>
							<height>137</height>
						</image><item>
				<title>Sterling Stumbles as Disinflation Accelerates; Light Week Ahead</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 04:16:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/sterling-stumbles-as-disinflation-accelerates-light-week-ahead-87863</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/sterling-stumbles-as-disinflation-accelerates-light-week-ahead-87863</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Sterling Stumbles as Disinflation Accelerates; Light Week Ahead  Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral   EUR/GBP Technical Analysis 05.24.13   Forgetting Ben (Bernanke) and Trading the Yen Next Week   GBP/USD Reverses off of 4/4 Low   The British Pound was one of the worst performing currencies this past week, barely outpacing the Australian and Canadian Dollars, by +0.53% and +0.08%, respectively. The dramatic turnaround in both of the more traditional safe havens, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, came amid an equally dramatic sell-off in equity markets around the globe, which seemed to have cost the Sterling some favor among traders; as the world&rsquo;s oldest and more liquid currencies, the Euro-zone crisis sans the Swiss Franc as a viable safe haven opened the door for the Sterling to fill the void. Hence, as the globe shifted back into the traditional safe havens and Euro-zone concerns on hold, the British Pound had to pay the piper.  Exogenous influences weren&rsquo;t the only reason the British Pound fell, however. Data this past week showed that disinflation &ndash; positive but decelerating price pressures &ndash; is kicking in, with the April Consumer Price Index report showing a considerable drop to +2.4% y/y, the lowest such rate since September. In all, there have been only two CPI reports showing headline inflation at +2.4% y/y or less over the past three years, besides the April reading: June 2012 at +2.4% y/y and September 2012 at +2.2% y/y. Comparatively speaking, it is worth pointing out that the British Pound gained in the three months following those reports. After the June report, the GBPUSD gained +2.85% through the end of September; after the September report, the GBPUSD gained +0.54% (this is slightly distorted by burgeoning Yen weakness, as the GBPJPY soared by +10.62% in the 4Q&rsquo;12).  The big picture to consider with the weaker than anticipated inflation numbers which, by the way, caused the GBPUSD to accelerate its slide to a weekly low of $1.5031, in what was the closest pass at 1.5000 since April 4, when price slumped to 1.5032 (note: a former low holding). Inflation has remained a concern for the Bank of England, which has held off from any significant easing measures of its own (significant being a relative term thanks to the actions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve).   As per the BoE&rsquo;s May meeting Minutes that were released this week, &ldquo;domestic cost pressures were likely to ease over the forecast period as productivity growth gradually revived. Medium-term inflation expectations were assumed to remain anchored on the target. And external pricing pressures were assumed to fade. Overall, those assumptions meant that inflation was set to fall back gradually over the forecast period.Even so, inflation was more likely than not to be above the 2% target for much of the next two years.&rdquo;  Inflation is the most important issue to focus on during the week ahead, as there is a relatively light economic docket, and now that disinflation has set in, the BoE might start to change its tune &ndash; soon. Governor Mervyn King is out the door in July, after which point Mark Carney will take the reins. Governor Carney has been an advocate of non-traditional easing measures when central bank policies have reached their traditional limits &ndash; zero or near-zero interest rates. If this trend of disinflation continues, then there is a good chance that the incoming governor expands the BoE&rsquo;s accommodative policies via other avenues, perhaps even a nominal GDP target.  For now, as the market weighs the pros and cons of what the new price data means in context of a slowly growing economy, the British Pound is viewed as neutral, especially in context of some of the more violent moves occurring in the FX landscape presently. Technically speaking, the EURGBP broke out of its downtrend off of the March 12 and April 17 highs, while the GBPUSD has slid to its lowest level in nearly two months. With the GBPCHF and GBPJPY pairs in turmoil as well, the British Pound is seemingly paralyzed by the lack of policy response on either the fiscal or monetary side of the equation, leaving it in a precarious position in the weeks ahead. -CV   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Will EUR/USD Break 1.3000 or 1.2750 on Heavy Data, Risk Trends?</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 03:50:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/will-eur-usd-break-1-3000-or-1-2750-on-heavy-data-risk-trends-87864</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/will-eur-usd-break-1-3000-or-1-2750-on-heavy-data-risk-trends-87864</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Will EUR/USD Break 1.3000 or 1.2750 on Heavy Data, Risk Trends?  Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bullish   Bundesbank expects the Germany economy to improve markedly   Eurozone PMIs show cautious improvement, still in contractionary territory   EURUSD bounces from trendline support, but for how long&hellip;   The euro didn&rsquo;t put in for a concerted move of its own this past week &ndash; happy to simply ride the current on stronger counterparts like the US dollar. However, the week ahead will likely see the Euro-region fundamentals generate a lot of the trading activity for the period. Running through the docket of scheduled event risk, there is a heavy round of releases that will speak to the region&rsquo;s painful economic performance as well as the conveniently overlooked financial rumblings in key areas. And, of course, we should never overlook the overriding influence that investor sentiment itself can have over a currency that is dependent on a dubious calm.   There are two pillars of fundamental interest when it comes to the health of the Eurozone and its economy: the infectious recession and the constant risk of a financial crisis flare up. After years of shattered nerves under these twin realities, investors have grown tolerant of these conditions when the threat of an immediate collapse isn&rsquo;t at hand. In other words, if there isn&rsquo;t a crisis flare up; traders are willing to brave the questionable investment environment in order to chase assets whose prices are depressed and yield leveraged higher due to previous swells of panic.   For growth, there are a few important pieces of event risk that can stir the euro, sovereign debt and capital flow through the region. Just a few weeks ago, first quarter GDP figures showed us that the enduring recession in the periphery was dragging down the core with weaker German growth and a deeper French contraction. Hope still seems high though &ndash; further bolstered by the PMI figures (monthly substitutes for the bigger growth figures) which improved modestly this past week. Though, it should be said that even those improvements kept the Eurozone in contractionary territory.   At the top of the list, we should watch for the OECD semi-annual economic forecasts. These will offer a broader look at the region and set the tone for international investors. If there is an assessment that is lower than the regional governments&rsquo; own forecasts or even the IMF, it could unsettle many flighty investors. As encompassing as this multi-national body&rsquo;s assessment is, though, its market-moving potential in an extreme case scenario pales in comparison to the Slovenian 1Q GDP figures due on Friday. As the country considered most likely to be the next chapter in the Eurozone&rsquo;s financial crisis saga, a poor outcome can virtually ensure yet another country has to seek a rescue. And, now that &lsquo;bail-ins&rsquo; are the preferred method; it would be another opportunity to test investors&rsquo; already-thin patience.  Growth is a constant dilemma, but financial stability ebbs and flows with greater influence over the currency and rates market. It isn&rsquo;t difficult to predict who and what will be a serious threat in the future, but it is difficult to establish &lsquo;when&rsquo;. Spain for example, is living on borrowed time and funds with a banking sector that will have to set aside another &euro;10 billion for future loan losses on a &euro;200 billion in recently rolled debt. The year-to-date budget report from the country will be a notable report, but the recent rise in the nation&rsquo;s 10-year sovereign bond yield likely represents the more tangible threat. Meanwhile, Portugal has essentially been ignored because there have been countries in far worse shape. That being said, we should not overlook the potential in a poor showing from the Bank of Portugal&rsquo;s Financial Stability Report (due 14:00 GMT on Tuesday). We can also look to the front end of the crisis curve as Slovenia, Cyprus and Greece are smaller &ndash; but far more explosive &ndash; threats to the system. Yet, the most headline-worthy event on the docket is the annual policy assessment and recommendations from the EU on Wednesday.  It is preferable to see the spark to a strong market move ahead of time, but such catalysts are often obscure and unknown ahead of time. A serious problem in Slovenia or even Germany can be &lsquo;played down&rsquo; if there is a high level of tolerance for risk in the broader market &ndash; where fear of a crisis spread is low and the chase for yields high. Therefore, euro traders should also closely monitor the sentiment level in the broader market. If fear were to gain traction as the capital markets were threatening this past week, a regional recession and high probability of another financial eruption would quickly place the euro on the chopping block&hellip;   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Gold Rebounds as Stocks Retreat  Is It Time to Buy?</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 02:55:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-rebounds-as-stocks-retreat-is-it-time-to-buy-87859</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-rebounds-as-stocks-retreat-is-it-time-to-buy-87859</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Gold Rebounds as Stocks Retreat- Is It Time to Buy?  Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral   Gold Trying to Carve a Bullish Base?   Gold May Rise as Fed Dents QE3 Reduction Bets   Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues   Gold posted a modest recovery this week with the precious metal advancing 2.12% after last week&rsquo;s 6% decline to trade at $1388 at the close of trade in New York on Friday. The rally marks the biggest weekly rise in a month as stocks retreated and talks of possible cessation of QE operations eased. So, is this rally real or should we be looking for fresh short entries?   Expectations that the Federal Reserve may start to taper back QE operations kept gold prices on the defensive early this month as data flow continued to suggest that the economic recovery is on a more sustainable path. During Bernanke&rsquo;s testimony before the joint congressional committee, Fed Chairman noted the risk associated with a prolonged zero interest rate policy and noted that the FOMC will be closely watching incoming data when considering when to begin pulling back on asset purchases. However remarks made by St Louis Fed President James Bullard on Friday suggested that before he would vote to scale back stimulus measures, inflation would need to pick up. As such, gold prices (although higher on the week) maintained a clear range between $1357 and $1397 with price action suggesting that a near-term low may be in place.  The US economic docket is rather light next week, offering little guidance for gold traders. However, investors will be closely monitoring central bank rhetoric with Eric Rosengren and Sandra Pianalto scheduled to speak next week. Look for gold to take cues off of broader market sentiment with this week&rsquo;s decline in equity markets marking the first three day losing streak for the Dow this year. Should stocks continue to underperform gold prices could catch a bid as investors seek to diversify away from risk correlated assets.    From a technical standpoint, the gold trade gets a little tricky here with prices seemingly carving out a near-term low with a break above Fibonacci resistance at $1397 risking a more significant topside correction. Such a scenario eyes resistance targets at $1424- $1430 with only a breech above $1487 invalidating the broader downtrend. Interim support rests at $1357 with a break below this mark (on a daily close basis) opening up our primary objective range of $1302- $1307. With limited event risk next week and the close of the month on tap, we will maintain a neutral bias pending a break of this week&rsquo;s range. -MB   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Australian Dollar May Have Scope to Rise Amid Profit Taking</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 02:50:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/australian-dollar-may-have-scope-to-rise-amid-profit-taking-87860</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/australian-dollar-may-have-scope-to-rise-amid-profit-taking-87860</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Australian Dollar May Have Scope to Rise Amid Profit-Taking  Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral   Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Minutes Dent RBA Rate Cut Outlook   AUD/USD Chart Points to Ebbing Selling Pressure, Hints at Correction    Speculative Sentiment Argues for Continued Australian Dollar Selling   Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.  The Australian Dollar continued to slide last week &ndash; yielding the worst performance among the major currencies against its US namesake &ndash; as shifting monetary policy expectations undermined demand for the high-yielder. The sharp swoon in the AUDUSD exchange rate since the beginning of the month has been accompanied by a brisk narrowing of the yield spread between benchmark US and Australian 10-year bond yields. This implies an Aussie-negative realignment of investors&rsquo; perceptions of relative returns to be had from holding one currency over the other.   The markets appeared to perceive last week&rsquo;s testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as signaling the likelihood of a reduction in the size of QE3 asset purchases over the coming months, reinforcing the erosion of the Aussie&rsquo;s yield advantage as traders price in a less accommodative US monetary policy stance. Indeed, the aforementioned 10-year spread is now hovering near the lowest levels since early February 2009. Against this backdrop, AUDUSD dropped to finish the week at lowest level in close to a year.  Looking ahead, a limited stock of high-profile US and Australian event risk seem to open the door for a correction. On the US side of the equation, May&rsquo;s Consumer Confidence report, April&rsquo;s Pending Home Sales figure, and a handful of regional activity surveys round out the docket. The pickings even slimmer in Australia, where Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit data amount to the only bit of fundamental news-flow to inform RBA policy expectations.   Against this backdrop, the Aussie may find itself without fresh fuel to power the downtrend, allowing for a period of profit-taking to lift prices higher before the larger trend resumes. In fact, data from the CFTC&rsquo;s Commitment of Traders report suggests that speculators are the most net-short of the Australian Dollar since mid-June of last year, suggesting there is ample room for an unwinding in the near-term.   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Japanese Yen Correction to Be Limited  BoJ Rhetoric in Focus</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 02:44:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/japanese-yen-correction-to-be-limited-boj-rhetoric-in-focus-87861</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/japanese-yen-correction-to-be-limited-boj-rhetoric-in-focus-87861</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Japanese Yen Correction to Be Limited- BoJ Rhetoric in Focus  Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral   USD/JPY Takes Out Last 8 Days; Beware the Chop That Follows   USD/JPY Chart Warns of Correction Ahead   USDOLLAR Searching for Support- JPY to Face BoJ Rhetoric   The Japanese Yen bounced back against its U.S. counterpart, with the USDJPY tagging a weekly low of 100.82, and the near-term pullback may turn into a larger correction as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to scaling back its aggressive approach in achieving the 2% target for inflation. At the same time, Economy Minister Akira Amari warned that a further depreciation in the local currency can &lsquo;negatively&rsquo; affect Japanese households, and went onto say that the &lsquo;excessive Yen gains have been corrected a lot&rsquo; as the exchange rate trades above the 103.00 figure for the first time since 2008.   Indeed, the BoJ Minutes struck a rather neutral tone for monetary as the board pledged to adjust monetary policy as need, and it seems as though Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will carry a wait-and-see approach into the second-half of the year as the central bank head looks to avoid &lsquo;excessive volatility&rsquo; in the debt market. As the BoJ raises its fundamental assessment of the Japanese economy for the fifth consecutive month, the central bank anticipates price growth to &lsquo;gradually turn positive&rsquo; over the policy horizon, and the board may retain its current policy stance at the June 11 meeting as Mr. Kuroda argues that the central bank has announced sufficient monetary easing to stem the risk for deflation. As we have a slew of Japanese policy makers scheduled to speak in the week ahead, we may see a growing number of central bank officials curb their willingness to introduce more non-standard measures, and the Consumer Price report on tap for the following week may continue to dampen speculation for additional monetary support as the headline reading for inflation is expected to contract at a slower pace in April. However, the BoJ may have little choice but to further embark on its easing cycle in the second-half of the year as there remains a &lsquo;high degree of uncertainty&rsquo; surrounding the world&rsquo;s third-largest economy, and we may see the central bank included a broader range of asset classes in its quantitative easing program in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.  As the Relative Strength Index on the USDJPY continues to come off of overbought territory, the pullback from 103.72 may gather pace in the days ahead, but former resistance around the 100.00 handle may serve as interim support amid the deviation in the policy outlook. In turn, we may see the dollar-yen carve out a higher low ahead of June, but correction may evolve into a large reversal should we see the BoJ strike a less-dovish tone for monetary policy. &ndash; DS   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Dollar Could Surge as Markets on the Brink of Something Big</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 02:35:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-could-surge-as-markets-on-the-brink-of-something-big-87862</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-could-surge-as-markets-on-the-brink-of-something-big-87862</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Dollar Could Surge as Markets on the Brink of Something Big  Fundamental Forecast for US Dollar: Bullish   The warning signs are clear: we&rsquo;re watching for further USD and JPY strength   Japanese Nikkei plummets 7+ percent and sparks broader market panic   We&rsquo;ve said it before and we&rsquo;ll say it again, it could be only the beginning the USD surge   It was shaping up to be a banner week for the US Dollar as the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) powered to fresh multi-year highs, but the suddenly-resurgent Japanese Yen stole the spotlight as it posted its largest weekly gain since August, 2011. It may nonetheless be another critical week for FX and broader financial markets as we see early signs of potential turnaround in the S&amp;P 500, the Yen, and even global bond markets.   There are countless bubbles in financial markets as global central banks attempt to inflate their way out of economic slowdown (e.g. the US Fed&rsquo;s QE measures). We think two of the biggest and most obvious ones are global equity markets (see: S&amp;P 500, Nikkei 225) and bonds (everything from AAA-rated sovereign debt to junk bonds). The past week saw both take a simultaneous nosedive, and anyone can tell you that stocks and bonds are not supposed to move in the same direction.   The fact that both US Treasury Bonds fell (yields rose) as the S&amp;P 500 tumbled warned that market conditions are anything but normal, and it feels as though markets are on the precipice of an indiscriminate and potentially violent deleveraging. Or in plain English: if we see stocks AND bonds continue recent tumbles, it would signal market panic and likely significant US Dollar strength.   Why does this matter? We haven&rsquo;t seen this kind of indiscriminate deleveraging in any real volume since the &ldquo;Flash Crash&rdquo; of May, 2010 and before that it was the Financial Crisis of 07/08. You can say what you will about the Dollar&rsquo;s fall from grace as the world&rsquo;s premier safe-haven currency, but the fact is that the Dollar has appreciated in every episode of financial market panic in recent memory. What do we watch for in the week ahead?   First and foremost, we&rsquo;ll need to see whether this is truly the startof a turn in the S&amp;P 500. Even if other markets don&rsquo;t necessarily follow suit, there&rsquo;s a good chance that stockmarket weakness will be enough to drive the Greenback higher. Secondly, it will be critical to watch whether we see the same sharp sell-offs in bonds and other asset markets. We&rsquo;re specifically talking about the things that are not supposed to move together like the Dow Jones and the 2-year US Treasury Note. If stocks fall as government bond yields rise (bond prices move inversely to yields), the Dollar could strengthen significantly as investors unwind speculative trades in a hurry.   Why all the doom and gloom? Couldn&rsquo;t this be only a minor stumble as the S&amp;P continues its seemingly-unstoppable march towards fresh peaks? Of course&mdash;it certainly wouldn&rsquo;t be the first time we were &lsquo;early&rsquo; in our calls for a substantial market turnaround. Yet we&rsquo;ve said it before and we&rsquo;ll say it again: market conditions are entirely too quiet. And though it feels as though forex market volatility is already high, US Dollar volatility prices are literally a fraction of they were just three years ago. The recent US Dollar breakout could be just the beginning as FX volatility prices test critical highs.  It will be a pretty light week of major FX economic event risk with possible exceptions that include US GDP revisions and further commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. But the past week of price action emphasizes that the catalyst doesn&rsquo;t need to come from a top-tier economic calendar release. There was a 7+ percent decline in the Japanese Nikkei 225 index that was ostensibly caused by disappointing Chinese PMI data. But if you really believe that a minor disappointment in an industry survey was enough for a near-crash in markets, I&rsquo;ve got a bridge I&rsquo;d like to sell you.  Traders are nervous as we see the early signs that markets might unravel. And though the risk of overnight economic disaster is non-existent, no one wants to be the last one off of the sinking boat and it won&rsquo;t take much to spark the stampede. We&rsquo;ll tread carefully as markets show early signs of substantive reversal. And, on a personal note, I&rsquo;ll be out of the office next week. But I&rsquo;ll try my best and update thoughts via twitter and e-mail if anything changes. Good luck trading and thanks for the continued interest and support &ndash; DR http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2013/05/23/Yen_Continues_to_Rise_as_Nikkei_Closes_With_a_4-Year_Record_Decline.html  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Forex: Pivotal Time for Markets Next Week as USD/JPY, S&amp;amp;P 500 Toe Cliff Edge</title>
				<pubDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 02:06:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-pivotal-time-for-markets-next-week-as-usd-jpy-s-p-500-toe-cliff-edge-87858</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-pivotal-time-for-markets-next-week-as-usd-jpy-s-p-500-toe-cliff-edge-87858</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  A sharp pullback from the S&amp;P 500 and the biggest weekly drop from USDJPY in nearly three years this past week has put the markets on edge. For the first time in months, we are seeing a serious enough threat to to the passive risk appetite grind that a lasting and market-wide unwinding looks like a very real probability. All of the fundamental elements are there: extreme price levels, excessive leverage, record low rates of return and troubled economic conditions. However, against the backdrop of a dedicated wave of stimulus; speculative selling must be a committed move. That can be problematic given the holiday weekend. We discuss the key fundamentals at play and the trade opportunities should they play out or not in the weekend video.  Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.   Sign up for John&rsquo;s email distribution list, here.  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Forgetting Ben (Bernanke) and Trading the Yen Next Week</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 20:07:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forgetting-ben-bernanke-and-trading-the-yen-next-week-87856</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forgetting-ben-bernanke-and-trading-the-yen-next-week-87856</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The reversal in the crowded long equities / short Yen trade influenced larger USD trade in general, especially the USDCHF. The 8 month bullish pattern is at risk of failure if price doesn&rsquo;t turn up from near current levels. We also must consider a return of &lsquo;risk on / risk off&rsquo; trading after the stock market reversal.  USDJPY  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: The USDJPY rally from 90.84 is an ending diagonal (wedge). Such patterns are usually resolved violently and often fully retraced. An outside reversal week on a slightly less than record week of volume (CME volume was slightly less than the week that ended 8/17/07&hellip;as of 4pm Eastern Time) is consistent with an important top.           FOREXTrading Strategy: Looking for an early week top. Given how many probably want to take part in a short position, would not be surprised to see more of a &lsquo;battle&rsquo; before the break. Would expect resistance at 101.82-101.99 (former support and Thursday close) and sell into that area if reached. A more volatile option of course is the AUDJPY (see below), which reversed from above the 2008 high in April. A month+ of consolidation was broken this week and recent lows at 98.72 and 99.28 form a zone to sell into against 101.00. If the downside plays out, then the objective from the widest point of the recent consolidation yields 94.51. Given the propensity for Yen crosses to overshoot targets, especially on the downside, I&rsquo;d not be surprised to see the 2/27 low at 92.95.   AUDJPY  Weekly  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  AUDUSD  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Thursday&rsquo;s large volume (CME) proved to be the beginning of short term exhaustion&hellip;beginning because the AUDUSD traded down to meet the objective derived from the 1.0624-1.0114 range before reversing sharply. The reversal could be the beginning of a rally (4th wave) into .9840. .9840 is the Tuesday high and underside of the trendline that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows AND former channel (red). The parallels between this year and last year remain striking (a low was made last year on 5/23 which led to a 4th wave rally and final low on June 1).      FOREXTrading Strategy: Looking to resell into the underside of the former corrective channel (in red)-the closer to .9840 the better. Understanding though that we are in sharp downtrend and rallies may prove fleeting, would be looking to sell after an up day in general.  Breakout systems are warranted as well.  USDCHF  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Similar to several other USD crosses, notably AUDUSD, some corrective activity may be needed before new USD highs are seen. The topside of the neckline from the completed inverse head and shoulders pattern was tested as support Friday as was the topside of the former corrective channel. The Elliott channel for 4th wave estimation is at .9550 on Monday and .9570 on Tuesday. The latter is in line with the March high (.9566). Weakness below .9520 would negate the 5/14 bullish breakout.  FOREXTrading Strategy: Looking for a low early next week, ideally near .9570. Respect the potential for this entire thing to fall apart too though (use stops!) after CME volume on Wednesday was the highest since 8/9/11&hellip;that USDCHF low hasn&rsquo;t been seen since. Such significant volume figures can indicate exhaustion of the trend.   USDOLLAR  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: A major breakout could be underway from above 10472. Strength above the long term channel suggests acceleration of the rally that began at the 2011 low.  However, price has reached the Elliott channel for 5th wave estimation so don&rsquo;t be surprised to see at least consolidation if not a deeper setback from current levels. Considering that the USDJPY is responsible for most of the rally in recent months, a sharp USDJPY downturn would likely be responsible for most of the weakness too. The topside of the larger channel (blue) is of interest as support if reached. That line is at about 10690 next week.      --- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com  To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele  Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive actionable FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.    Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Learn to Manage Forex Risk</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 20:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/learn-to-manage-forex-risk-87857</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/learn-to-manage-forex-risk-87857</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Article Summary: Traders should look to contain their risk on every position. Learn to exit the market using Risk/Reward ratios.   When traders first approach the Forex market, it is invevitatble that traders will pull up a chart and begin planning their first market entry. However, while most traders are focusing on potential entires, more emphasis should be placed on risk management. Proper risk management allows us to know exactly where we whish to exit the market and have a firm plan to vacate a position in the event price turns against us. Today we will focus on the first step of risk management through understanding Risk/Reward ratios.  Learn Forex &ndash;USDCHF 4HR Channel  (Created using FXCM&rsquo;s Marketscope 2.0 charts)  So what exactly is a risk reward ratio? This ratio refers to the number of pips we expect to gain in profit on a trade relative to what we are risking in the event of a loss. Knowing this function makes controlling risk easy because traders will intuitively pinpoint places to exit their trade. The key is to find a positive ratio for your strategy and implement it every time into your positioning. Let&rsquo;s look at an example of a positive Risk/Reward ratio.   Above the graph depicts a sample channel trade on the USDCHF. Traders looking to trade a swing would expect to enter the market on a bounce off of the lower line of support near .9580. When setting exits on a channel trade, stops should always be set outside a level of support or resistance. In this example stops are under support near .9465. In the event price declines through this level, we would be expecting to lose 115 pips. To create a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio we would then need to make at least twice as much in profit on the position placing limit orders at .9810 or better. Now that we know a little about risk reward ratios let&rsquo;s see exactly why they are so important.  From The Number One Mistake FX Traders Make by David Rodriguez  Traders that are savvy to risk reward ratios ultimately know how to avoid the number one mistake that Forex Traders Make. Through research, FXCMs analysts were able to calculate that while most trades are closed at a profit, losses still far exceeded profits due to traders risking more on losing positions than the amount gained from a winner. This comes from traders using a negative risk/reward ratio and needing a much higher winning percentage to compensate for their losses. In the graph above, we can see that the average profit on the USDCHF is only 44 pips, while the average loss is closer to 90.  This scenario can completely be averted by using at minimum a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio to maximize profits on winning trades, while limiting losses when a trade moves. By risking 115 pips to make a reward of 230 pips in the trade above, we are effectively inverting these statistics in our favor. Meaning now, we only need to have one winning trade for any two given losers to be break even to net profitable on our trading account.   ---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor  To contact Walker, emailwengland@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.  To be added to Walker&rsquo;s e-mail distribution list,CLICK HEREand enter in your email information  Looking for more information on risk management? Take our free risk management course and learn more about adding Risk/Reward levels to an existing strategy.Register HEREto start learning!   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Gold Rebounds as Stocks Retreat  Is It Time to Buy?</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 19:05:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-rebounds-as-stocks-retreat-is-it-time-to-buy-87855</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-rebounds-as-stocks-retreat-is-it-time-to-buy-87855</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Gold Rebounds as Stocks Retreat- Is It Time to Buy?  Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral   Gold Trying to Carve a Bullish Base?   Gold May Rise as Fed Dents QE3 Reduction Bets   Crude Oil, Gold Look to Fed-Speak for Direction Cues   Gold posted a modest recovery this week with the precious metal advancing 2.12% after last week&rsquo;s 6% decline to trade at $1388 at the close of trade in New York on Friday. The rally marks the biggest weekly rise in a month as stocks retreated and talks of possible cessation of QE operations eased. So, is this rally real or should we be looking for fresh short entries?     Expectations that the Federal Reserve may start to taper back QE operations kept gold prices on the defensive early this month as data flow continued to suggest that the economic recovery is on a more sustainable path. During Bernanke&rsquo;s testimony before the joint congressional committee, Fed Chairman noted the risk associated with a prolonged zero interest rate policy and noted that the FOMC will be closely watching incoming data when considering when to begin pulling back on asset purchases. However remarks made by St Louis Fed President James Bullard on Friday suggested that before he would vote to scale back stimulus measures, inflation would need to pick up. As such, gold prices (although higher on the week) maintained a clear range between $1357 and $1397 with price action suggesting that a near-term low may be in place.  The US economic docket is rather light next week, offering little guidance for gold traders. However, investors will be closely monitoring central bank rhetoric with Eric Rosengren and Sandra Pianalto scheduled to speak next week. Look for gold to take cues off of broader market sentiment with this week&rsquo;s decline in equity markets marking the first three day losing streak for the Dow this year. Should stocks continue to underperform gold prices could catch a bid as investors seek to diversify away from risk correlated assets.    From a technical standpoint, the gold trade gets a little tricky here with prices seemingly carving out a near-term low with a break above Fibonacci resistance at $1397 risking a more significant topside correction. Such a scenario eyes resistance targets at $1424- $1430 with only a breech above $1487 invalidating the broader downtrend. Interim support rests at $1357 with a break below this mark (on a daily close basis) opening up our primary objective range of $1302- $1307. With limited event risk next week and the close of the month on tap, we will maintain a neutral bias pending a break of this week&rsquo;s range. -MB  ---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX  To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or follow him on Twitter @MBForex  To be added to Michael&rsquo;s distribution list Click Here  New to FX Trading? Watch this Video   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Bullish Dollar Factors That Backfired</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 17:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/bullish-dollar-factors-that-backfired-87854</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/bullish-dollar-factors-that-backfired-87854</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Better-than-expected US economic data and a general shift towards risk aversion haven&rsquo;t done much to help the US dollar, and USDJPY could fall below 101 on Friday if US equities lose ground before the close.  Based on the price action in the currency and equity markets on Friday, risk aversion is driving investment flows. The US dollar (USD) is trading higher against all major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF). This performance is finally consistent with what we would expect when equities are selling off and comes in contrast to price action in Thursday&rsquo;s session.  See also: A Trusted Trade That Didn&rsquo;t Work  The USDJPY tested 101 early in the North American session despite better-than-expected US durable goods orders. Demand for goods made to last for more than a few years rose 3.3% in April after falling 5.9% the prior month. Excluding transportation, orders were still strong, but shipments plunged 1.5%, offsetting some of the optimism. Regardless, this continues a trend of upside US data surprises that will undoubtedly make the Federal Reserve more willing to dial back asset purchases in the third or fourth quarter of this year.  Currency traders have ignored this report, however, and the USDJPY is now pointing lower and poised for a move down to 100. The lack of market-moving US event risks next week means USDJPY may not get much support from US fundamentals.    The EURUSD, on the other hand, is struggling to hold onto its gains following a better-than-expected German IFO report. This is the second piece of key Eurozone data to show improvements in the Eurozone economy. While the European Central Bank (ECB) only cut interest rates at the beginning of the month, we are beginning to see the benefits of a weaker currency through the IFO and PMI numbers, and with time, the recent rate cut will lend additional support to the region.   Looking ahead, the performance of currencies today will largely depend upon whether US stocks see the same intraday reversal the Nikkei did overnight. If stocks end the day in positive territory, USDJPY will most likely remain above 101, but if stocks end Friday down more than 0.75%, USDJPY could find itself below the 101 level.  By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USDOLLAR Searching for Support  JPY to Face BoJ Rhetoric</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 16:15:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usdollar-searching-for-support-jpy-to-face-boj-rhetoric-87853</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usdollar-searching-for-support-jpy-to-face-boj-rhetoric-87853</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[             Index    Last    High    Low    Daily Change (%)    Daily Range (% of ATR)       DJ-FXCM Dollar Index    10783.36    10824.3    10771.4    -0.01    74.34%     Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  Even though the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.01 percent lower from the open, we&rsquo;re seeing the greenback continue to consolidate above the 10,760 figure, and the reserve currency may track higher ahead of the holiday trade as demands for U.S. Durable Goods increased 3.3 percent in April amid forecasts for a 1.5 percent print. Nevertheless, the dollar may face choppy price action throughout the North American trade as market participation thins ahead of Memorial Day, but should see the near-term correction in the reserve currency gather pace in the days ahead as it fails to maintain the bullish trend from earlier this month. Although, the shift in the Fed&rsquo;s policy outlook should limit the downside for the dollar, and we will look for a higher low in the index as we anticipate the bullish sentiment surrounding the USD to get carried into the second-half of the year.  Indeed, the pullback in the relative strength index foreshadows a larger correction in the USDOLLAR, and we may see the 10,760 region fail to hold up as interim support as the oscillator continues to come off of overbought territory. Should we see a break to the downside, the dollar may work its way back towards former resistance around the 10,600 handle, and we will look to buy dips in the greenback as the exit strategy becomes a growing discussion at the Fed. In turn, the shift in the policy outlook should continue to influence the USD in the second-half of the year and we may see the FOMC move away from its easing cycle later this year as the outlook for growth improves.   Two of the four components rallied against the greenback, led by a 1.11 percent advance in the Japanese Yen, but we will look to buy dips in the USDJPY as it maintains the bullish trend from earlier this year. As we have a slew of Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials scheduled to speak next week, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may limit the downside for the USDJPY as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retains a highly dovish tone for monetary policy. However, it seems as though the BoJ will stick to the sidelines for the time being as they assess the impact of the highly accommodative policy stance, and the dollar-yen may continue to consolidate within the upward trending channel from the beginning of the year as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Nevertheless, the deviation in the policy outlook should continue to produce fresh highs in the USDJPY, and we will look for a higher low in the exchange rate as we anticipate the BoJ to further embark on its easing cycle in the coming months.  --- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst   To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.   To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.   Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.  New to FX? Watch this Video  Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>A Trusted Trade That Didn?t Work</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 14:30:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/a-trusted-trade-that-didn-t-work-87852</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/a-trusted-trade-that-didn-t-work-87852</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The underperformance of the US dollar versus major currencies defies convention, as neither safe-haven demand nor renewed risk appetite produced gains in the currency.   The US dollar (USD) traded lower against all major currencies on Thursday, and its persistent underperformance during the North American trading session was interesting since stocks recovered and 10-year bond yields rose back above 2% after dropping below 1.97%.    The dollar barely budged, however, and most of its recovery against the Japanese yen (JPY) happened during the European session. The dollar did not benefit from safe-haven demand or the recovery in risk appetite, causing investors to wonder what's going on.    Afterall, the dollar generally performs well during periods of risk aversion, but investors had been gradually increasing their exposure to dollars since the beginning of the month, and when they de-levered, they sold the greenback this time instead.  The dollar weakness also had nothing to do with fundamentals, as US economic data including jobless claims, house prices, and new home sales all surprised to the upside. Overall, these reports should help support US yields and the greenback, and while we haven't seen the financial markets react, the implications for Fed policy are clear: good data will make the central bank more confident in dialing back asset purchases later this year.  New Data Drives EUR/USD Close to 1.30   A better-than-expected German IFO reading boosted investor confidence in Europe and helped to propel the EURUSD towards 1.3000 in Friday morning European trade. The IFO printed at 105.7 versus 104.5 expected, while the current assessment component also rose more than expected, to 110 from 107.2 forecast.  The latest IFO results led Klaus Wohrable, the deputy department head, to suggest that Q2 German GDP will be considerably better than the Q1 reading. Wohrable noted that construction activity picked up immensely in May, as pent-up demand came on line. He also stated that export orders continue to do well and that the latest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) has had a positive psychological impact on the German business sector.  The improvement in German sentiment is not restricted to the business sector, either. Earlier in the session, the German GFK consumer sentiment survey registered its best reading in five years, printing at 6.5 versus 6.2 expected. Taken together, the two surveys suggest that conditions in Europe's largest and most important economy are clearly improving, and that bodes well for the rest of the Eurozone and could help pull the region out of recession as the year progresses.  The EURUSD pushed its way to 1.2990 in the aftermath of the news, but the rally stalled just ahead of the key 1.3000 mark. The 1.3000 level is a very stiff point of resistance for the euro, as it represents strong former support from which the unit tumbled over the past several weeks. Whether the pair can clear that hurdle will likely depend on Friday&rsquo;s North American session, during which investors will have to reassess Eurozone growth prospects given the latest German IFO data.  New Facts of Life for Japan, USD/JPY?  In Japan, the placid Friday closing numbers from the Nikkei belied the massive volatility in stocks overnight. The index was up nearly 2% and then down 3% before finally closing a little more than 1% higher on the day. This strong turbulence may be the new fact of life in the Japanese financial markets as the massive Bank of Japan (BoJ) easing program is clearly triggering wild moves in the nation&rsquo;s financial markets.  Japanese officials are trying to pacify the markets and make sure that Japanese government bond (JGB) yields do not gyrate wildly, but so far, policymakers have only used jawboning to stem the panic. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe noted that the BoJ is not buying government debt directly, while BoJ Governor HaruhikoKuroda emphasized that the central bank's primary focus is on deflation, not stock market valuations.   Still, if the volatility does not dampen soon, Japanese policymakers may need to take firmer steps to pacify the markets, and some analysts have even suggested that the BoJ may need to implement its own version of a longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) in order to stabilize the sovereign debt instruments.  For now, USDJPY continues to mirror the volatility in other markets with the pair rising to a high of 102.89 only to tumble back to 101.08 in overnight trade. It appears that the 103.75 level will remain a near-term top while the pair consolidates its latest rally, but a further fall to 100.80 could trigger a deeper correction that could test the key 100.00-level support.  See also:   The Answer to That Burning USD/JPY Question   Clear Swing Trades Brewing Amid the Panic    British Pound (GBP) at the Mercy of the Market  The British pound (GBP) traded higher against the US dollar on Thursday while continuing its slide against the euro. The second release of first-quarter GDP numbers confirmed that the UK economy expanded 0.3% in the first three months of the year. Private consumption and government spending were slightly weaker, but imports and exports were revised higher, and there was not much in the way of new information in this latest GDP release.    After the surprisingly large decline in consumer spending data this week, we are looking at the possibility of even weaker UK economic growth in the second quarter, and this may explain why policymakers remained dovish despite upticks in the latest PMI numbers. With no major UK data on the economic calendar for Friday, we expect sterling to remain weak and sensitive to the market's overall risk appetite.  Commodity Dollars Rally from Lows  After falling to fresh multi-month lows against the US dollar, the Australian (AUD), New Zealand (NZD), and Canadian (CAD) dollars all ended Thursday sharply higher. Their respective recoveries have been impressive, but the AUD, NZD, and CAD need to see more gains before key resistance levels are broken.    Disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI numbers caused the initial slide in the currencies. According to HSBC, manufacturing conditions China returned to contractionary conditions, ending a six-month stretch of expansion. Economists were not looking for a slowdown, so when the index showed a contraction, the AUD and other commodity currencies traded sharply lower but recovered during Thursday&rsquo;s European and North American trading sessions, likely supported by the rebound in US stocks.  New Zealand trade numbers were scheduled for release Thursday evening, and given the rise in business and service PMI, we believe there is scope for an upside surprise that could fuel further gains in the NZDUSD. No economic reports are expected from Australia or Canada.  By Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Forex Strategy 05.24.2013: Enter Long USDCAD, Stay Short GBPUSD</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 12:30:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-strategy-05-24-2013-enter-long-usdcad-stay-short-gbpusd-87848</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-strategy-05-24-2013-enter-long-usdcad-stay-short-gbpusd-87848</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  I entered short GBPUSD at 1.5533. Prices have now met my second objective to test the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.5029. I will continue to hold short, looking for a daily close below this barrier to expose the 50% level at 1.4850. The stop-loss has been revised to trigger on a close above 1.5322, the May 16 swing high. I have also triggered a long USDCAD position at 1.0323 as prices pulled back after clearing a major falling trend line connecting tops dating back to October 2011. I will initially aim for a break above the 50% Fib retracement at 1.0367. A stop-loss will be activated on a close below 1.0283, the 38.2% mark.  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/JPY Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 12:27:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-jpy-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87849</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-jpy-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87849</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  EUR/JPY Technical Analysis- Prices are testing below support at 131.65, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that targets the 23.6% level at 130.34. Near-term resistance is at 133.79, the May 22 swing high. Negative RSI divergence argues in favor of a downside scenario.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>GBP/JPY Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 12:23:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-jpy-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87850</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-jpy-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87850</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  GBP/JPY Technical Analysis- Prices are testing below support at 154.00, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, having completed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break downward on a daily closing basis initially exposes the 23.6% level at 152.30. Near-term resistance is at 156.77, the May 13 high, followed by the underside of a recently broken rising trend line now at 157.10.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/GBP Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 12:22:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-gbp-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87851</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-gbp-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87851</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  EUR/GBP Technical Analysis &ndash; The formation of a Triangle chart preceded a breakout higher, as expected. Buyers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8648, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 0.8803. Near-term support is in the 0.8506-25 area.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Euro Fails to Breakout as ECB Fires Warning Shot  H&amp;amp;S in Tact</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 12:10:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-fails-to-breakout-as-ecb-fires-warning-shot-h-s-in-tact-87844</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-fails-to-breakout-as-ecb-fires-warning-shot-h-s-in-tact-87844</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Talking Points   Euro: IFO Business Confidence Tops Forecast, ECB Warns of Market Uncertainty   British Pound: BoE Talks Down Bets for Rate Cut Amid &lsquo;Modest&rsquo; Recovery   U.S. Dollar: Index Continues to Consolidate, Durable Goods Orders on Tap   Euro: IFO Business Confidence Tops Forecast, ECB Warns of Market Uncertainty  The Euro climbed to an overnight high of 1.2992 as Germany&rsquo;s IFO Business Confidence survey advanced to 105.7 from 104.4 in April to mark the first rise in three-months, but we&rsquo;re seeing the EURUSD struggle to breakout of the range from earlier this week as European policy makers maintain a cautious outlook for the region.   Although European Central Bank President (ECB) Mario Draghi argued that the non-standard measures have helped to increase stability across the monetary union, Governing Council member Jens Weidmann warned that delays to achieving the budget target &lsquo;would risk an increase in market uncertainty,&rsquo; and went onto say that the high level of debt puts pressure on monetary policy as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on central bank support.  As European policy makers scale back their push for austerity, Mr. Weidmann added that the EU should allow for state bankruptcies, but we should see the ECB continue to embark on its easing cycle in the second-half of the year as the prolonged recession in the euro-area threatens the outlook for price stability.  In turn, we should see the head-and-shoulders pattern in the EURUSD continue to take shape ahead of the next ECB interest rate decision on June 6, and will look for a key break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50 to see the Euro give back the rebound from back in July (1.2041).  British Pound: BoE Talks Down Bets for Rate Cut Amid &lsquo;Modest&rsquo; Recovery  The British Pound continued to track higher on Friday, with the GBPUSD advancing to 1.5135, and the sterling may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year as the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle.   Although BoE board member Paul Fisher said the central bank should continue to shore up the U.K. economy, Mr. Fisher warned that the Monetary Policy Committee must keep a close eye on inflation expectations as price growth is expected to hold above the 2% target over the policy horizon, and went onto say that another rate cut would have a very limited impact in boosting demand amid the fiscal tightening.  As the BoE now sees a &lsquo;modest&rsquo; recovery in the U.K., it appears as though the MPC will keep the Asset Purchase Facility capped at GBP 375B, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials start to discuss a tentative exit strategy in the second-half of the year as the region skirts a triple-dip recession.  As the GBPUSD continues to hold above the 1.5000 handle, the pair could be carving a higher low ahead of the next BoE policy meeting on June 6, and the sterling may track higher in the second-half of the year as the central bank scales back its willingness to expand the balance sheet further.  U.S. Dollar: Index Continues to Consolidate, Durable Goods Orders on Tap  The greenback is struggling to hold its ground on Friday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)giving back the overnight advance to 10,824, but we may see the reserve currency regain its footing during the North American trade as the economic docket is expected to highlight an improved outlook for growth.  Indeed, demands for U.S. Durable Goods are expected to increase 1.7% in April after contracting 5.7% the month prior, but we will also keep a close eye on orders for Non-Defense Capital Goods excluding Aircrafts as it acts as a gauge for future business investment.   FX Upcoming     Currency    GMT    EDT    Release    Expected    Prior       EUR    12:30    8:30    ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks on Financial Regulation             USD    12:30    8:30    Durable Goods Orders (APR)    1.7%    -5.7%         USD    12:30    8:30    Durables ex Transportation (APR)    0.5%    -1.4%         USD    12:30    8:30    Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (APR)    0.5%    0.2%         USD    12:30    8:30    Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipment ex Aircrafts (APR)      0.3%         EUR    15:45    11:45    EU's Olli Rehn Speaks on Financial Regualtion           --- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst  To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong  To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.  Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum  Trading the volatile hours of the US open? Use this app to help find breakouts during these market conditions.  RelatedArticles:  Weekly Currency Trading Forecast   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:57:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87845</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87845</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  EUR/USD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices advanced as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacciexpansion at 1.2913 has exposed the 38.2% level at 1.2986, with a further push beyond that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1.3044. The 1.2913 mark has been recast as near-term support. A reversal back beneath that aims for a trend line set from mid-November 2012, now at 1.2792.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/JPY Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:54:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87846</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87846</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/JPY Technical Analysis- Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers are testing below initial support at 101.84, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, to challenge the 23.6% level at 100.68. A break below that aims for the 38.2% level at 98.80. Near-term resistance is at 103.73, the May 22 high.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD Retests $1.3000 on Better German Data; Yen Rallies Again</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:24:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-retests-1-3000-on-better-german-data-yen-rallies-again-87847</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-retests-1-3000-on-better-german-data-yen-rallies-again-87847</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP  After being put through a bit of a ringer this past week &ndash; the US Dollar rallied after the Federal Reserve indicated it is shifting its strategy towards gradually tightening the liquidity spigot, and the Japanese Yen rallied amid the massive sell-off in Japanese bond and equity markets &ndash; the Euro has emerged as a top performer this week, building off of last week&rsquo;s gains.   Although the EURCHF lost Sf1.2500 overnight (due to Franc strength), the EURUSD burst higher following a much improved German IFO survey that suggest s the German economy might have seen a bit of a resurgence in May. The survey, which showed that German business confidence increased for the first time in three months, raises the bar for 2Q&rsquo;13 growth projections, which in my opinion should have little trouble beating the dour 1Q&rsquo;13 report &ndash; whose final iteration was released today, showing that the economy grew by +0.1% q/q but fell by -0.2% y/y adjusted or -1.4% y/y unadjusted &ndash; as a spat of inclement weather impacted businesses and consumers alike.  While the EURUSD has thus far failed at cracking $1.3000, there is still a chance for later on today, when the US Durable Goods Orders (APR) report is released at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT. A modest rebound is expected (+1.5% versus -6.9% prior (m/m)), although given the tempered trend of expansion in industrial and manufacturing production, there may not be much to see here besides the fact that the US economy continues to struggle to find firm footing.  Taking a look at European credit, the Euro has rallied despite higher yields in the periphery following the improved German data this morning. In my opinion, the higher yields attest to the fact that the European Central Bank will be less inclined to offer additional support for the struggling peripheral countries as long as the core remains strong. This may prove to be a negative pressure on the Euro &ndash; inaction and indecision on behalf of European policymakers has been one of the biggest problems of the sovereign debt crisis the past several years. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 1.401% (+2.7-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 1.835% (+5.1-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.101% (+7.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 4.353% (+8.2-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.   RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:30 GMT  CHF: +0.77%  JPY: +0.40%  EUR: +0.38%  GBP:+0.12%  CAD:-0.43%  NZD:-0.57%  AUD:-0.86%  Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.05% (-0.24% past 5-days)  ECONOMIC CALENDAR  See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK  EURUSD: On Wednesday I said: "My bearish bias would be negated on a weekly close &gt;$1.3000/30 (May 14 swing high and 200-SMA).I prefer selling rallies into 1.2975/3000.&rdquo; Today, price attempted to breach 1.3000 and failed, but evidence is growing that the Euro could stand to benefit from the recent uncertainty regarding the US Dollar and the Yen; there is very little uncertainty surrounding the Euro right now. I thus maintain a bearish bias, but a close &gt; 1.3000/30 will negate and imply a rally towards 1.3220/50 (mid-April swing highs). To the downside, a break of 1.2795/800 would confirm the move towards 1.2750 and 1.2680.  USDJPY: Although price has attempted to retake &yen;102.50 today, further selling in the Nikkei alongside volatility in JGBs has stoked the revival of the Yen as a safe haven; certainly, the decline in the domestic equity market suggests that the domestic currency would gain in value anyway (intermarket analysis theory). Price is relatively unchanged from yesterday, as the reversal has cut through the key 101.80 level, leading to a deeper pullback to the 21-EMA at 100.80/90 on Thursday, and a run towards 101.00 earlier today. We are watching the 21-EMA, as it is pacing the ascending trendline support off of the April 2 and April 31 lows, coinciding with the same trend on the daily RSI. A further breakdown eyes a move towards 100.00, then 97.50.  GBPUSD: No change: &ldquo;The GBPUSD is back pressuring last week&rsquo;s lows. With price holding below the $1.5200/20 region I was watching last week, a move towards the early-April lows at 1.5035/75 now eyed&hellip;.with daily RSI support cracked, the plan is to sell rallies. Indeed, the lower 1.5035 target was reached, and with the trade stretched to the downside, brief pause allowing the 8-EMA to catch up to current price could occur. I still prefer selling rallies towards the big picture move towards 1.4200.&rdquo;  AUDUSD: No change: &ldquo;The AUDUSD closed below the key 0.9860 level last week, ascending channel support off of the October 2011 and June 2012 lows, as well as the weekly 200-DMA. That is to suggest that a top in the pair back to the July 2011 high at 1.1079 is in place, though I&rsquo;d prefer for a monthly close below 0.9860/900 for better confirmation. Now, a deeper pullback towards 0.9580 and 0.9380/400 is beginning. In the very near-term, with the weekly RSI at the lowest level since the height of the global financial crisis in the 4Q&rsquo;08, the AUDUSD is probably close to a point of near-term exhaustion. Rebounds should be sold.&rdquo;  S&amp;P 500: No change as the intraweek Bull Flag broke to the upside and hit top rail resistance at 1665 on Friday: &ldquo;The headline index remains strong although there is some theoretical resistance coming up (this is unchartered territory, so forecasting price relies heavily on valuations, mathematical relationship, and pattern analysis)&hellip;It&rsquo;s hard to be bearish risk right now, but it is worth noting that the divergence between price and RSI continues, suggesting that few new hands are coming into the market to support price (recent volume figures would agree).&rdquo; Channel resistance from mid-April comes in at 1670, while support is at 1648 (8-EMA) and 1642 (steep channel support).  GOLD: No change: &ldquo;If the US Dollar turns around, however (as many of the techs are starting to point to), then Gold will have a difficult gaining momentum higher. Indeed this has been the case, with Gold failing to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April meltdown at $1487.65, only peaking above it by 35 cents for a moment a few weeks ago.&rdquo; Price is back under 1400, and if US yields keep firming, a return to the lows at 1321.59 shouldn&rsquo;t be ruled out.  --- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst  To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com  Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX   To be added to Christopher&rsquo;s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>GBP/USD Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:14:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87834</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87834</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  GBP/USD Technical Analysis &ndash; Prices declined as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-March. Sellers are now testing support at 1.5029, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 50% level at 1.4850. Near-term falling channel resistance is at 1.5171, with a move above that aiming for the May 16 high at 1.5322.We continue to hold short  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>AUD/USD Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:13:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87835</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87835</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  AUD/USD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices are testing support in the 0.9663-82 area, marked by the November 23 2011 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that eyes the 0.9580-84 region. Near-term resistance is at 0.9841, the May 21 swing high. Positive RSI divergence argues in favor of an upside scenario.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>NZD/USD Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:11:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87836</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87836</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  NZD/USD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 0.8052, the November 16 2012 low, hinting a move higher is ahead. Near-term resistance is at 0.8181, a formerly broken horizontal support level, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8261. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 0.80 figure and the September 5 2012 low at 0.7914.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CAD Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:10:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87837</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87837</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/CAD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices advanced as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from mid-September 2012. The pair has now cleared major falling trend line resistance connecting tops dating back to October 2011 to expose the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0367. A break above that targets the 61.8% level at 1.0451. Near-term support is at 1.0283, the intersection of the broken trend line and the 38.2% Fib. We have entered long.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CHF Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:08:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87838</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87838</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/CHF Technical Analysis- Prices are testing support at 0.9687, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, after completing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence argues in favor of a downside scenario. A break lower confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 0.9596. Near-term resistance is at 0.9838, the May 22 swing high.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>US Dollar Technical Analysis 05.24.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 11:06:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/us-dollar-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87839</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/us-dollar-technical-analysis-05-24-2013-87839</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  US Dollar Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 10763, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 10694. Near-term resistance is at 10876, the May 23 high.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/JPY Chart Warns of Correction Ahead</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 10:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-chart-warns-of-correction-ahead-87840</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-chart-warns-of-correction-ahead-87840</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat  Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers are testing below initial support at 101.84, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, to challenge the 23.6% level at 100.68. A break below that aims for the 38.2% level at 98.80. Near-term resistance is at 103.73, the May 22 high. We will look for a correction lower to yield a long trade opportunity.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>NZD/USD Candlestick Setup Hints at Rebound</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 10:50:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-candlestick-setup-hints-at-rebound-87841</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-candlestick-setup-hints-at-rebound-87841</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat  Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 0.8052, the November 16 2012 low, hinting a move higher is ahead. Near-term resistance is at 0.8181, a formerly broken horizontal support level, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8261. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 0.80 figure and the September 5 2012 low at 0.7914. We will opt to wait for added confirmation before entering a trade and stand aside for now.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD Mounts Cautious Recovery at Support</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 10:48:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-mounts-cautious-recovery-at-support-87842</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-mounts-cautious-recovery-at-support-87842</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat  Prices advanced as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacciexpansion at 1.2913 has exposed the 38.2% level at 1.2986, with a further push beyond that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1.3044. The 1.2913 mark has been recast as near-term support. A reversal back beneath that aims for a trend line set from mid-November 2012, now at 1.2792. Risk/reward considerations argue against entering a trade at current levels and we will stand aside for now.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>AUD/USD May Bounce at Key Swing Bottom</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 10:29:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-may-bounce-at-key-swing-bottom-87843</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-may-bounce-at-key-swing-bottom-87843</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat  Prices are testing support in the 0.9663-82 area, marked by the November 23 2011 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that eyes the 0.9580-84 region. Near-term resistance is at 0.9841, the May 21 swing high. Positive RSI divergence argues in favor of an upside scenario. Current positioning doesn&rsquo;t offer an actionable trade setup and we remain on the sidelines for now.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Euro Rallies on Surprising German Business Survey   </title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 09:15:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-rallies-on-surprising-german-business-survey-87833</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-rallies-on-surprising-german-business-survey-87833</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  THE TAKEAWAY: German IFO business climate survey beats expectations at 105.7 -&gt; IFO&rsquo;s Wahlrobe says he expects GDP to rise significantly in Q2 -&gt; Euro rallies closer to 1.3000  The Euro rallied fifty points and rose closer to 1.3000 against the US Dollar, following the release of a better than expected German IFO survey and ensuing optimistic comments from the IFO. The IFO Survey of the business climate in May rose to 105.7, beating expectations for the survey result to remain at 104.4 for a second month. The IFO survey of current assessment rose to 110.0 from 107.2 in April, and the survey of expectations met expectations and remained at 101.6.  IFO&rsquo;s Wohlrabe said after the release that he expects the German GDP to rise significantly in the second quarter when compared to the first quarter. Earlier today, the German economy was confirmed to have grown 0.1% in Q1, following the 0.7% GDP decline reported for Q4. The German GFK consumer confidence survey also rose more than expected to 6.5 for June.  The Euro is trading around 1.2980 against the US Dollar in Forex markets at the time of this writing. The pair may see resistance by the key 1.3000 figure, and support may continue to be provided around 1.2815.   The major comments from the European session came from the Bank of England&rsquo;s Fisher. Fisher said the UK is starting to see a pickup, but the central bank must continue to support adjustments in the economy. He further said that evidence shows that QE is not becoming less effective. Although Fisher&rsquo;s comments came off as dovish, he was one of the three MPC members who voted to add to stimulus in May, and therefore his comments did not significantly affect Pound trading.  (How does a Currency War affect your FX trading? Take our free course to find out!)  EURUSDDaily: May 24, 2013  Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0  -- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Yen Extends Gains But Near Term Continuation Questionable</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 06:05:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/yen-extends-gains-but-near-term-continuation-questionable-87832</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/yen-extends-gains-but-near-term-continuation-questionable-87832</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The Japanese Yen continued to press higher amid risk aversion overnight but the sentiment-driven push may struggle to sustain momentum through the week-end.  Talking Points   Yen Extends Gains on Asian Stocks Drop, Kuroda Commentary    German IFO Survey May Prove to be a Non-Event for the Euro   Dollar May Rise if Durables Data Boosts Fed QE Reduction Bets   The Japanese Yen continued to rally for a second day as risk aversion struck again on Asian stock exchanges after yesterday&rsquo;s blood-letting, driving continued unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index slid as much as 1.7 percent. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of risk aversion in the FX space, down as much as 1.0 and 0.6 percent respectively against their leading counterparts.   Comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda helped underpin the Yen. The central bank chief said that while officials will continue to push toward ending deflation, the BOJ has announced sufficient monetary easing. That suggested policymakers were in no hurry to supplement their efforts in the near term, reinforcing what seems to be an emerging tendency toward profit-taking on short-Yen positions. Indeed, after months of speculation about the introduction of &ldquo;Abenomics&rdquo; and its subsequent implementation, investors may be hard-pressed to find further fundamental fuel for Yen selling in the near term.  The German IFO Survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Economists expect the data to print unchanged from the prior month, offering no meaningful directional guidance to the Euro or wider risk appetite. While Eurozone economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts according to data compiled by Citigroup, the tepid response to yesterday&rsquo;s PMI roundup hints the markets may have put the recession in the currency bloc on the backburner in the near-term as the spotlight remains on the Fed and Yen-related matters.  S&amp;P 500 index futures are trading flat in early European session hours having recovered from earlier losses, casting doubt over the direction of risk sentiment ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. The US Durable GoodsOrders report rounds scheduled event risk for the week, with expectations pointing to a mild 1.5 percent recovery in April following a sharp 6.9 percent drawdown in the prior month. A supportive outcome may reinforce bets on near-term reduction in Federal Reserve QE efforts, boosting the US Dollar.  Need Help Navigating Volatile FX Markets? Get Help From Our Automated Breakout System.   Asia Session:     GMT    CCY    EVENT    ACT    EXP    PREV       22:45    NZD    Trade Balance (NZ$) (APR)    157M    480M    732M       22:45    NZD    Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (APR)    -694M    -346M    -515M       22:45    NZD    Exports (NZ$) (APR)    3.95B    4.06B    4.41B       22:45    NZD    Imports (NZ$) (APR)    3.80B    3.60B    3.68B       1:35    CNY    MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (MAY)    57.1    -    58.5       2:55    JPY    BOJ&rsquo;s Kuroda Speaks at Nikkei Conference    -    -    -     Euro Session:     GMT    CCY    EVENT    EXP/ACT    PREV    IMPACT       6:00    EUR    German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)    0.1% (A)    0.1%    High       6:00    EUR    German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)    -1.4% (A)    -1.4%    High       6:00    EUR    German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)    -0.2% (A)    -0.2%    High       6:00    EUR    German Domestic Demand (1Q)    0.0% (A)    0.0%    Low       6:00    EUR    German Private Consumption (1Q)    0.8% (A)    -0.3%    Low       6:00    EUR    German Capital Investment (1Q)    -1.5% (A)    -1.1%    Low       6:00    EUR    German Government Spending (1Q)    -0.1% (A)    0.1%    Low       6:00    EUR    German Construction Investment (1Q)    -2.1% (A)    -0.7%    Low       6:00    EUR    German Imports (1Q)    -2.1% (A)    -1.3%    Low       6:00    EUR    German Exports (1Q)    -1.8% (A)    -2.4%    Low       6:00    EUR    German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)    6.2    6.2    Low       8:00    EUR    German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)    104.4    104.4    Medium       8:00    EUR    German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)    107.2    107.2    Medium       8:00    EUR    German IFO - Expectations (MAY)    101.6    101.6    Medium       8:30    GBP    BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)    32800    31227    Low     Critical Levels:     CCY    SUPPORT    RESISTANCE       EURUSD    1.2851    1.2986       GBPUSD    1.5038    1.5153     --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD  Trading the U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 06:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-trading-the-u-s-durable-goods-orders-report-87830</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-trading-the-u-s-durable-goods-orders-report-87830</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders  What&rsquo;s Expected:  Time of release: 05/24/2013 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT  Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD  Expected: 1.5%  Previous: -5.7%  DailyFX Forecast: 1.0% to 2.5%  Why Is This Event Important:  Orders for U.S. Durable Goods are expected to increase 1.5% in April and greater demands for large-ticket items should increase the appeal of the dollar as private sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth. As a growing number of Fed officials turn increasingly upbeat toward the economy, it seems as though the FOMC will scale back on quantitative easing in the second-half of the year, and the committee may start to lay out a more detailed exit strategy in the coming months as the region gets on a more sustainable path.  Recent Economic Developments  The Upside          Release    Expected    Actual       U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)    77.9    83.7       Advance Retail Sales (APR)    -0.3%    0.1%       Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (APR)    140K    165K     The Downside          Release    Expected    Actual       Consumer Credit (MAR)    $15.600B    $7.966B       Personal Income (MAR)    0.4%    0.2%       Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (1Q A)    3.0%    2.5%     The rebound in consumer sentiment paired with the resilience in household spending certainly bodes well for U.S. durable goods, and a positive development may further dampen expectations for more QE as the outlook for growth improves. However, subdued wage growth along with the slowdown in private sector credit may drag on demands for large-ticket items, and the FOMC may keep the door open to expand its asset purchase program beyond the $85/month target in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.  Potential Price Targets For The Release  The head-and-shoulders formation in the EURUSD should continue to take shape as it carves out a lower top in May, and the pair looks poised for a move back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50 as the fundamental outlook for the U.S. economy improves. However, a dismal durable goods report may spark another test of the 38.2% retracement (1.3120), and we may see the bearish pattern fail to pan out should the developments coming out of the U.S. renew bets for additional monetary support.  How To Trade This Event Risk  Forecasts for a rebound in durable goods certainly casts a bullish outlook for the greenback, and a positive development may pave the way for a long U.S. dollar trade as it raises the scope for faster growth. Therefore, if orders increase 1.5% or greater in April, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade hits its mark in an effort to lock-in our gains.  In contrast, demands for U.S. durable goods may taper off amid the persistent slack in the real economy, and a dismal print may drag on the greenback as the data fuels bets for more QE. As a result, if the report falls short of market expectations, we will carry out the same setup for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position mentioned above, just in the opposite direction.  Impact that the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report has had on USD during the last month     Period    Data Released    Estimate    Actual    Pips Change   (1 Hour post event )    Pips Change   (End of Day post event)       MAR 2013    04/24/2013 12:30 GMT    -3.0%    -5.7%    -2    +19     March 2013 U.S. Durable Goods Orders  Demands for U.S. durable goods tumbled 5.7% in March after expanding a revised 6.4% the month prior, while orders for Non-Defense Capital Goods excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for business investments, increased 0.2% during the same period amid forecasts for a 0.3% rise. Despite the weaker-than-expected print, the EURUSD edged lower following the release, but we saw the U.S. dollar struggle to hold its ground during the North American trade as the pair ended the day at 1.3014. --- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link. Risk management is key to successful trading. Use this App to help establish proper risk controls on your trades. New to FX? Watch this Video Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Dollar Fails to Break EUR/USD?s 1.2750 Support as Risk, QE3 Fears Steady </title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 05:29:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-fails-to-break-eur-usd-s-1-2750-support-as-risk-qe3-fears-steady-87831</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-fails-to-break-eur-usd-s-1-2750-support-as-risk-qe3-fears-steady-87831</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[   Dollar Fails to Break EUR/USD&rsquo;s 1.2750 Support as Risk, QE3 Fears Steady    Japanese Yen Surge Tracking &ndash; Not Leading &ndash; Nikkei 225 Tumble   Euro Finds a Mixed Bag as PMI Figures Pick Up, Spanish Bond Demand Slows   Australian Dollar Refuses to Jump Start Serious Recovery   British Pound Slides after GDP Details Show Weak 1Q Triple Dip Miss   New Zealand Dollar Slide Continues but Hardly Accelerates on Weak Trade Data   Gold Establishes Range Below $1,400, Awaits Dollar&rsquo;s Move   Dollar Fails to Break EUR/USD&rsquo;s 1.2750 Support as Risk, QE3 Fears Steady  Stimulus will end&hellip;eventually. And, this realization sent a shudder through the market when both the FOMC minutes and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke noted that the central bank will likely temper QE3 in the coming months. Yet, how sensitive are the markets to this eventuality? If it was the mere recognition of the end to perpetual expansion of the Fed&rsquo;s balance sheet that would spur speculators to abandon ship, we would have seen the S&amp;P 500 build its sharp reversal Wednesday into a persistent trend and found the dollar driving EURUSD below 1.2750. Yet, neither critical escalation was realized this past session. The benchmark equity index closed its first back-to-back decline in five weeks; but it would also posts its biggest intraday, bullish recovery this year. Meanwhile, the combination of risk and money supply (the supply-and-demand aspect of balance sheet building) wouldn&rsquo;t prevent the greenback from dropping against all of its major counterparts Thursday. Yet, despite the offsetting effort, neither investor sentiment nor dollar appetite are secure.    Though initially lost in the pang of fear Wednesday, both Bernanke and the minutes presented a case for maintaining the status quo at least through the immediate future. The central bank Chairman did suggest that a reduction in purchases may be in the cards over the coming months, but he also stated clearly that withdrawal too quickly could stall the recovery &ndash; an outcome any policy authority looks to avoid. Similarly with the transcript from the last FOMC gathering, the note of &ldquo;some&rdquo; members suggesting a tapering as early as June doesn&rsquo;t overwhelm the &ldquo;many&rdquo; that said a downward shift in policy would require more progress. In a majority vote, the numbers are clear. Adding to sense of moderation the past session, St Louis Fed President Bullard reiterated his belief that the Fed isn&rsquo;t &ldquo;that close&rdquo; to easing its support. Given these assumptions, the eventual taming of the QE3 stimulus program will depend heavily on the data over the coming weeks.  As ambiguous as the Fed is looking to be and hesitant as they are to make the first move to leveling off, a few additional months of $85 billion Treasury and MBS purchases won&rsquo;t necessarily ensure risk appetite&rsquo;s buoyancy. The divergence between exposure at these record market levels and the traditional fundamentals behind investing is extreme. Given the historical low in benchmark global rates, commitment to the highs in capital markets and carry necessitates arid volatility levels and steady capital gains (rising prices for buy-and-hold investors). It doesn&rsquo;t take much for early profit taking to devolve into committed selling under these conditions. And, we don&rsquo;t need a heavy-handed signal for that&hellip;  Japanese Yen Surge Tracking &ndash; Not Leading &ndash; Nikkei 225 Tumble  Volatility behind the yen, Nikkei 225 and 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has soared over the past 24 hours. And, what makes this particularly worrisome is that the increased turnover looks like it may be semi-permanent. In the wake of the Bank of Japan&rsquo;s policy meeting where they announced a wait-and-see approach with their objective to increase the nation&rsquo;s monetary base by &yen;60-70 trillion, there is a distinctive risk that a dependence on constant escalation can scare the traders off. A steady appetite for JGBs, ETFs and J-REITs from the BoJ can keep the ship steady; but any troublesome weather will capsize carry trades that currently provide record low yields after having rallied 25 percent up from record lows. Doubt is already set in. The Nikkei 225&rsquo;s attempt to retrace some of its incredible 1,110-pip loss Thursday has already fallen apart. Renewed selling through Friday&rsquo;s session has pulled the benchmark index to a 10 percent drop from yesterday&rsquo;s peak.  Euro Finds a Mixed Bag as PMI Figures Pick Up, Spanish Bond Demand Slows  The euro struggled to produce its own move. The currency&rsquo;s biggest loss was found against the yen while its heartiest jump was won versus another safe haven &ndash; the dollar. The same split was noted between higher yielding currencies. From the euro docket, the regional PMI figures (treated as timely updates on growth trends) printed better than expected. The Eurozone Composite beat with a 47.7 reading, but it is important to remember that this is still a measure pointing to economic contraction. Meanwhile, the effort to take advantage of passive markets seems to be hitting a barrier. Spain recorded the first increase in yields and drop in demand in three months during a sale of 3, 5 and 13-year bonds.   Australian Dollar Refuses to Jump Start Serious RecoveryRisk trends made a bid to recover lost ground this past session, but the Australian dollar&rsquo;s effort to ride this move&rsquo;s coattails fell apart rather quickly. Furthermore, the highest benchmark-yield major never really gained traction against safe haven counterparts &ndash; indicating individual weakness beyond carry unwind. It is worth noting that the AUDUSD&rsquo;s correlation to the S&amp;P 500 is the most extreme, negative seen in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, open interest in Aussie government bond futures has advanced to 2008 highs &ndash; an indication of hedging losses?   British Pound Slides after GDP Details Show Weak 1Q Triple Dip Miss  The United Kingdom barely avoided the painful label of a triple dip recession, but the economy doesn&rsquo;t seem to be seeing much of the recovery that truly matters. With the second reading of the 1Q GDP figures released this past session, we were given details on performance. Personal spending and government spending slowed, while exports and investment both actually contracted. A Triple Dip in spirit perhaps.  New Zealand Dollar Slide Continues but Hardly Accelerates on Weak Trade Data  Trade is New Zealand&rsquo;s bread and butter growth-wise, but there was little strength to be found in the April figures that crossed the wires this morning. The trade balance figures for last month printed NZ$157 million &ndash; the biggest miss of the consensus forecast in years and a reversal from the two-year high from the previous month. Despite the negative implications, the kiwi&rsquo;s controlled decent held retrained.  Gold Establishes Range Below $1,400, Awaits Dollar&rsquo;s Move  A 1.5 percent rally from gold sounds good on paper, but a quick look at the charts shows us that the move was hardly productive. Once again, we are faced with a well-defined bout of congestion below $1,400 that will likely ward off any casual trending. The metal needs a dedicated drive that spurs commitment. Given that the Fed seems on the path of an eventual tempering of policy while the BoJ has hit its near-term limit, the catalyst for a bid on $1,800 seems out of reach. In the meantime, a dollar-borne selloff for the metal simply requires risk aversion.  **For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar  ECONOMIC DATA     GMT    Currency    Release    Survey    Previous    Comments       6:00    EUR    German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY)    -1.4%    -1.4%    Steady decline since 5Y high of 5.2% on 3/11         EUR    German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)    0.1%    0.1%    Large swings in data set; 1Y avg. 0.0%; High: 0.3%; Low: -0.6%       6:00    EUR    German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY)    -0.2%    -0.2%    Downward trend since 5Y high of 4.8% on 3/11       6:00    EUR    German Construction Investment    -1.2%    -0.1%    GE Q1 GDP grew less than forecast and Italy and France deteriorated in a faster pace, domestic demand will be subdued.       6:00    EUR    German Domestic Demand    0.1%    0.2%       6:00    EUR    German Imports    -0.9%    -0.6%    As GE avoided a contraction in Q1, exports are likely to exceed imports during the same period.       6:00    EUR    German Exports    -0.6%    -2.0%       6:00    EUR    German Private Consumption    0.3%    0.1%    1Y avg. 0.1; High 0.2; Low 0.0.       6:00    EUR    German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)    6.2    6.2    2-year modest uptrend despite sluggish growth.       8:00    EUR    German IFO - Business Climate    104.4    104.4    GE central park expected a stronger second quarter overall, not only in construction sector; Optimistic comments ma boost business confidence and expectation.       8:00    EUR    German IFO - Current Assessment    107.2    107.2       8:00    EUR    German IFO - Expectations    101.6    101.6         8:30    GBP    BBA Loans for House Purchase    32800    31227    Indicative of UK housing demand.       12:30    USD    Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air    -0.3%    0.5%    Measure of companies&rsquo; investment plan as it includes industrial machinery and computers; Budget cuts impacts on producers&rsquo; sentiment likely to level off.       12:30    USD    Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air    0.5%    -0.6%       12:30    USD    Durable Goods Orders    1.5%    -6.9%    Items last for at least three years; Typical has large fluctuation, less weight is on MoM data.       12:30    USD    Durables Ex Transportation    0.5%    -2.9%             GMT    Currency    Upcoming Events &amp; Speeches       1:45    CNY    Chinese MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (MAY)       2:55    JPY    Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference       7:00    EUR    EU&rsquo;s Barnier Speaks on Financial Regulation       7:00    GBP    BoE Member Fisher Speaks       10:00    EUR    ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayments       10:00    EUR    ECB&rsquo;s Weidmann Speaks       11:30    GBP    BoE&rsquo;s King Participates in Debate on Financial Crisis       15:45    EUR    EU&rsquo;s Rehn Speaks on Financial Regulations     SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS  To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal  To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table  CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE                  EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT      SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT       Currency    USD/MXN    USD/TRY    USD/ZAR    USD/HKD    USD/SGD      Currency    USD/SEK    USD/DKK    USD/NOK       Resist 2    15.0000    2.0000    9.8365    7.8165    1.3650      Resist 2    7.5800    5.8950    6.1150       Resist 1    12.9000    1.9000    9.5500    7.8075    1.3250      Resist 1    6.8155    5.8300    5.8620       Spot    12.4382    1.8476    9.5566    7.7630    1.2673      Spot    6.6561    5.7709    5.8339       Support 1    12.0000    1.6500    8.7750    7.7490    1.2000      Support 1    6.0800    5.6075    5.5000       Support 2    11.5200    1.5725    8.5650    7.7450    1.1800      Support 2    5.8085    5.4440    5.3040     INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT                 \Currency    EUR/USD    GBP/USD    USD/JPY    USD/CHF    USD/CAD    AUD/USD    NZD/USD    EUR/JPY    GBP/JPY       Resist. 3    1.3033    1.5204  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CAD Long Trade Triggered Above 1.03</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 04:46:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-long-trade-triggered-above-1-03-87829</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-long-trade-triggered-above-1-03-87829</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Long USDCAD at 1.0323, Targeting Above 1.0367  Prices advanced as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from mid-September 2012. The pair has now pulled back after clearing a major falling trend line connecting tops dating back to October 2011, offering acceptable risk/reward parameters to enter long. We will initially aim for a break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0367. A stop-loss will be activated on a close below 1.0283, the 38.2% level.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Forex: EUR/USD Refuses to Break 1.2750 as QE3 Taper Fears Cool</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 02:46:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-eur-usd-refuses-to-break-1-2750-as-qe3-taper-fears-cool-87827</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-eur-usd-refuses-to-break-1-2750-as-qe3-taper-fears-cool-87827</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The panicked response from the S&amp;P 500 and surge from the dollar to the QE3 taper warnings from the FOMC minutes and Chairman Bernanke shows the market is sensitive to market-wide risk trends. Yet, it seems the masses are not so sensitive that they will self-immolate on an unconfirmed Fed shift...at least not yet. In today's video we discuss the technical and fundamental boundaries to tripping a self-generating cycle of risk aversion along with what that means for trading. With a focus on the dollar, Japanese yen and Australian dollar; we discuss the difference between probabilities and potential.  Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.  Sign up for John&rsquo;s email distribution list, here.  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>US Dollar, S&amp;amp;P 500 Take Initial Steps to Downward Reversals</title>
				<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 02:39:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/us-dollar-s-p-500-take-initial-steps-to-downward-reversals-87828</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/us-dollar-s-p-500-take-initial-steps-to-downward-reversals-87828</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the S&amp;P 500 have taken preliminary steps toward bearish reversals but confirmation of concrete downward follow-through remains elusive.  US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS&ndash; Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Initial support is at 10763, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 10694. Near-term resistance is at 10876, the May 23 high.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  S&amp;P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS &ndash; Prices are testing support in the 1649.60-51.60 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the 100% expansion and a rising trend line set from the April 18 low. A break below this barrier initially exposes the 38.2% retracement at 1629.40. Near-term resistance is at 1676.50, the 123.6% expansion, with a reversal above that eyeing the 138.2% mark at 1693.10.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS &ndash; Prices completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1348.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1402.11, the 23.6% level, with a break above that targeting the 14.6% Fib at 1434.86 and the May 3 high at 1488.00. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 50% expansion at 1306.02.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS&ndash; Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A break below a horizontal support shelf at 93.84 exposes swing lows in the 92.11-19 area. Near-term resistance is at 96.92, marked by a falling trend line set from late January.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Clear Swing Trades Brewing Amid the Panic</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 23:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/clear-swing-trades-brewing-amid-the-panic-87816</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/clear-swing-trades-brewing-amid-the-panic-87816</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  When viewed in longer-term time frames, the sharp selloff seen in equities and major yen crosses is likely a correction within the overall uptrend, thus allowing swing traders some attractive possibilities.  Whether you&rsquo;re looking at Dow bulls or USDJPY bulls, the question seems to be the same: Is this where sentiment turns? And the best answer to that question may be: It depends on the time frame.   See related: The Answer to That Burning USD/JPY Question  Let&rsquo;s admit here and now that Fed Chairman Bernanke&rsquo;s statement said everything relevant, and that the Q&amp;A of the testimony probably got away from him. As such, the idea that the negative swing of Wednesday&rsquo;s Dow session was the driver for a &ldquo;needed&rdquo; Nikkei correction is flawed, as that had a lot to do with the yen strength. Risk came off the table, and when viewing that within the context of the Dow, USDJPY, and Nikkei uptrend, it&rsquo;s a far cry from a reversal.  I&rsquo;m not saying the market will go up indefinitely, but since when does a dramatic reversal &ndash;and frankly, one that comes on the heels of no major shift in Fed or Bank of Japan (BOJ) policies&mdash;qualify as a reversal and not simply a correction within the overall trend?   Have bulls become so vain that one look at a slightly unflattering mirror sends them running? Well, the near-term bulls, yes. It&rsquo;s the longer-term buyers that will step in and &ldquo;save the day,&rdquo; so that means that this does present an opportunity for swing traders who see these corrections for what they are.  The scenario I am more willing to entertain as a possibility is a transition of the trend, and even that would mean that this presents an opportunity for traders looking to fade the move.  Let&rsquo;s take a moment to look at how I identify a &ldquo;trend.&rdquo; That is primarily done visually with the 34-period exponential moving average (EMA) wave as well as the consistent green GRaB candles. The swing buy zone is created by the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) close and the 34-period EMA high in the context of an uptrend. This is where I park my limit order to buy.   Additionally, the 101.00 major psychological level for USDJPY is in play in this zone, which fortifies the support area. The justification for buying into weakness is dependent upon the uptrend; hence, this is also a correction.  Guest Commentary: Swing Trade Potential in USD/JPY  Applying this same approach to EURJPY yields the same conclusion. The angle of the 34-period EMA wave is up, as defined by the &ldquo;twelve-to-two-o&rsquo;clock&rdquo; angle, and once again, the green GRaB candles dominate the daily EURJPY chart, thus reflecting the bullish sentiment and momentum.   Looking at the swing buy zone between the 20-period SMA close and the 34-period EMA high, it&rsquo;s clear to see that this area was tested, but did nudge the bulls back awake.   Guest Commentary: Bullish Case Also Remains for EUR/JPY  While the Dow is (at the time of writing) still in the red, it has bounced back from a 125-point selloff, and it seems that only the selling pressure at 15,300 is keeping the Dow from going positive.  By Raghee Horner of TradeForexFutures.com   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>NZD/USD Washes Out Below November Low  </title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-washes-out-below-november-low-87826</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-washes-out-below-november-low-87826</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis:  NZDUSD sentiments are similar to AUDUSD.  Today&rsquo;s big reversal unfolded after a washout of sorts below the November 2012 low of .8052.  Price is actually up for the week now after opening at .8088.  Expect support at that weekly open price down to .8073.  Strength may compose a 4th wave that ends near .8212 but near term NZDUSD structure isn&rsquo;t as clear as near term AUDUSD structure.  Also, the NZDUSD has also traded into the underside of its former channel twice.  I don&rsquo;t like buying into the underside of a channel like that.      FOREXTrading Strategy:  Flat        LEVELS: .7914 .8052 .8088 .8170 .8212 .8271   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/JPY Takes Out Last 8 Days; Beware the Chop That Follows </title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-takes-out-last-8-days-beware-the-chop-that-follows-87825</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-takes-out-last-8-days-beware-the-chop-that-follows-87825</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Volume (CME) was the largest today since 8/16/07 (which is a record).  Does this tell us that the decline was a 1 day exhaustion (a la 2/25)?  After sharp down days off of a high, it&rsquo;s not uncommon for the USDJPY to &lsquo;chop&rsquo; around for a few days before making its next move (up or down).  With that in mind, 102.30 is a level to watch for resistance and 101.30 for support.  More information is needed (price data) in order to pass judgment regarding the next larger move   FOREXTrading Strategy: Flat    LEVELS: 99.94 100.82 101.30 102.30 103.15 103.73   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Gold Trying to Carve a Bullish Base?</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-trying-to-carve-a-bullish-base-87824</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-trying-to-carve-a-bullish-base-87824</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Weekly  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  Commodity Analysis: Gold didn&rsquo;t quite trade to new lows but silver did on Monday.  Non-confirmations (divergences) of price extremes between related assets often mark market turns or at least the beginning of a reversal pattern.  Gold&rsquo;s low was also at a downward sloping trend channel.  It&rsquo;s best to turn neutral.  Commodity Trading Strategy: Flat  LEVELS: 1307 1322 1354 1420 1439 1470    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USDOLLAR Elliott Channel Holds Firm</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usdollar-elliott-channel-holds-firm-87823</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usdollar-elliott-channel-holds-firm-87823</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily    Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using   Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis:  Recent comments are valid &ndash; &ldquo;A major breakout could be underway from above 10558.  Strength above the long term channel suggests acceleration of the rally that began at the 2011 low.  This could be EXTREMELY significant.  Price has reached the Elliott channel for 5th wave estimation however so don&rsquo;t be surprised to see at least consolidation if not a deeper setback from current levels.  Considering that the USDJPY is responsible for most of the rally in recent months, a USDJPY turn may be closer than many think.&rdquo;  The next week or so could see the USDOLLAR makes its way towards the topside of the larger channel (blue) before finding an important low.      FOREX Trading Strategy: Flat  LEVELS: 10676 10715 10760 10838 10882 11000  --- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com  To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com.&nbsp; Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele  Subscribe to Jamie Saettele'sdistribution list in order to receive actionable FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.  Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CHF Confluence Suggests Support at .9600</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-confluence-suggests-support-at-9600-87822</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-confluence-suggests-support-at-9600-87822</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Similar to several other USD crosses, notably AUDUSD, another move towards USD weakness may be needed before new USD highs are seen.  Look for a low in the coming days from .9566 (former highs) to .9627 (5/10 high).  The topside of the neckline from the completed inverse head and shoulders pattern is at about .9600.  The Elliott channel for 4th wave estimation and former corrective channel also intersect at .9600 later next week.  A daily close below .9520 would suggest that the breakout has failed.    FOREXTrading Strategy: Looking for a low near .9600&hellip;next week? Several days of chop are probably in order after today.  One must respect the potential for this entire thing to fall apart too (use stops!) after CME volume on Wednesday was the highest since 8/9/11&hellip;that USDCHF low hasn&rsquo;t been seen since.   LEVELS: .9566 .9600 .9633 .9736 .9781 .9898   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CAD Drops into Support Zone That Extends to 1.0265</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-drops-into-support-zone-that-extends-to-1-0265-87821</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-drops-into-support-zone-that-extends-to-1-0265-87821</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Weekly  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis:  &ldquo;The USDCAD decline from the March high consists of 2 equal legs, which is characteristic of corrections.  The suggestion is that the larger trend is up&hellip;as long as price is above 1.0012.  Strength above the internal trendline that extends off of the March and early April high is promising.&rdquo;  Focus remains on a multiyear trendline at about 1.0425 this week.  Like the other USD commodity crosses, the setback from 1.0392 may compose a 4th wave.  The current level down to 1.0265 is support.  FOREXTrading Strategy: Flat  LEVELS: 1.0148 1.0216 1.0265 1.0343 1.0392 1.0425   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Crude Drops Near 5/15 Low and Reverses Intraday</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/crude-drops-near-5-15-low-and-reverses-intraday-87820</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/crude-drops-near-5-15-low-and-reverses-intraday-87820</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Weekly  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  Commodity Analysis: Crude is once again trading at the trendline that extends off of highs since September 2012.  This is the 7th week since September that the line has been tested.  It seems unlikely that the level won&rsquo;t give way eventually and send crude towards the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 highs near 103-104.  Near term pattern is sloppy though and clarity is needed before a stand can be taken.   Commodity Trading Strategy:  Flat  LEVELS: 90.09 92.11 93.34 95.46 96.41 97.65    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>AUD/USD .9840 Lining Up as Resistance </title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-9840-lining-up-as-resistance-87819</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-9840-lining-up-as-resistance-87819</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Yesterday&rsquo;s large volume (CME) proved to be the beginning of exhaustion&hellip;beginning because the AUDUSD traded down to meet the objective derived from the 1.0624-1.0114 range before reversing sharply.  The reversal is probably the beginning of a rally (4th wave) into .9840.  .9840 is the Tuesday high and underside of the trendline that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 lows AND former channel (red).  The parallels between this year and last year remain striking (a low was made last year on 5/23 which led to a 4th wave rally and final low on June 1).      FOREXTrading Strategy:  Depends on your timeframe&hellip;short term traders can look for longs off of .9700 would be quick to tighten stop to breakeven given larger downtrend and 4th wave structure&hellip;which can be choppy.  Swing traders, expecting resistance at .9840 to resell.  Twitter @JamieSaettele will update position as always.    LEVELS: .9593 .9656 .9700 .9750 .9841 .9918   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>GBP/USD Reverses off of 4/4 Low</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-reverses-off-of-4-4-low-87818</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-reverses-off-of-4-4-low-87818</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: The GBUSD reversed sharply from just under the 4/4 low. Despite the reversal, a new low isn&rsquo;t out of the question from current levels in order to complete 5 waves down from 1.5321 (price would then be at risk of a recovery back to 1.5321).  If price rallies from above the low, then would begin looking for a top at 15260-1.5320.    FOREX Trading Strategy: Moved to flat and looking to resell higher&hellip;probably above 1.5260.    LEVELS: 1.4901 1.5012 1.5053 1.5160 1.5260 1.5320   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD Action is Sloppy at Current Juncture   </title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 22:52:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-action-is-sloppy-at-current-juncture-87817</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-action-is-sloppy-at-current-juncture-87817</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Bigger picture, a EURUSD head and shoulders top would be confirmed on a drop below 1.2743.  Was previously looking for a drop below 1.2796 (to complete 5 waves down) before a recovery like the one we had today.  The early low throws a wrinkle in things.  Elliott channel resistance is holding at the moment but the sharp advance from today&rsquo;s low doesn&rsquo;t exactly inspire confidence in the downside.  It is worth noting that 1.2934 continues to prove an important level (today&rsquo;s close was 1.2932).            FOREX Trading Strategy:  Flat  LEVELS: 1.2820 1.2855 1.2895 1.2997 1.30281.3071   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Leverage as Velocity</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 19:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/leverage-as-velocity-87815</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/leverage-as-velocity-87815</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  One of the biggest benefits of the FX market is also one of the primary causes of failure for new traders, and that is the available leverage in the market. One of its greatest features- flexibility &ndash; can very easily become one of its biggest hurdles. The goal of this article is to share with traders how to become more comfortable with this pivotal aspect of the FX Market.   Before we delve deeper into the concept of trade sizes, it&rsquo;s important to point out that many of the best traders in the world keep leverage at a moderate quotient of 10:1 or less. This would be like trading position sizes of $100,000 with a balance of $10,000 in the account (100k trade size divided by $10,000 equity = (100k/$10,000 = 10-to-1 leverage (often expressed in ratio form as 10:1)). In the FX market, leverage of 50:1 is available to most traders, with much more available in many jurisdictions.    While this can be beneficial in those instances in which the trader finds themselves on the right side of the move, the results can be catastrophic when traders find themselves on the opposite end of the trade.    The very act of over-leveraging can also change our outlook, reactions, and decision-making processes. This is often why the best of the best traders in the world keep their leverage at more moderate levels of under 10:1.    Using higher degrees of leverage introduces multiple points of risk in the portfolio that can greatly change the way that traders manage positions, enter trades, or even analyze markets.   Why is Leverage so Important?   Do you remember what it&rsquo;s like when you learned to drive? For those in New York City, or other cities with access to public transportation, this analogy may not ring as true so we&rsquo;ll explain below.    When learning to drive, students are instructed to first start out at low speeds. This is a very logical introduction to driving, as the slower speeds allow greater reaction times &ndash; limiting risk by eliminating the dangers that can come with higher speeds.   As drivers get more comfortable, they slowly but gradually increase their speeds.    Eventually, they are driving on the highway with the rest of the market.   Leverage is like velocity; high rates of speed and/or leverage can be dangerous  And some take this a step further, and go far above the posted speed limits; exposing themselves to an entirely new set of risk factors that can greatly increase the probability of an accident. Professional race car drivers routinely reach over 200 MPH (equivelent to 320 km/h), but that doesn't mean that every experienced driver should. And to new drivers that have very little experience operating a motor vehicle, the potential downsides can be catastrophic.    Leverage is velocity  When new traders are learning to speculate, much like new drivers learning the ways of the road, less risk is often best.    Just like new drivers needing to control their speeds while they are learning the ways of the road, traders should learn to speculate at lower levels of leverage while learning the ways of the market.   Not only can lower leverage make mistakes LESS expensive, but it can also make it easier for new traders to learn the ever-present range of emotions that goes hand in hand with the art of speculation.    How &lsquo;low&rsquo; is low &ndash; and how can traders learn to use leverage effectively?  Unfortunately, there isn&rsquo;t a hard rule for how much leverage is &lsquo;best&rsquo; for new traders. At DailyFX, we teach traders to first get comfortable with the operation of the market on the demo account with no financial risk exposed. Once comfortable risking hard capital, traders should look to trade with very little, or no leverage at all.    So, for our trader with a $10,000 equity line, this would mean trading one mini lot (10k size position), or perhaps two mini lots at a maximum (10k trade size/ $10k equity = 2:1 leverage).   Once comfortable trading with small amounts of leverage, traders can look to increase leverage at their discretion.    In our Traits of Successful Traders series, we found that traders using moderate levels of leverage in the observed period saw far better trading results. The below picture, taken directly from the article &lsquo;How Much Capital Should I Trade Forex With,&rsquo; traders using 5:1 leverage were profitable a full 76% more often than traders using more exorbitant levels of leverage (26:1 in the observed research).   Less is More; Traders using more moderate leverage saw far better results  Taken directly from &lsquo;How Much Capital Should I Trade Forex With.&rsquo;   While using static leverage amounts can be helpful, such as taking on 50k in positions with equity of $10,000 (10k X 5 = 50k), there is perhaps a better way for traders to calculate trade sizes.    After all, keeping risk at 5:1 doesn&rsquo;t ensure traders against catastrophe. If a trade is left un-managed, 5:1 can create a margin call just like 50:1 can create a margin call (albeit at a slower pace since less velocity is being used).   A better way of going about this would be to limit total exposure on any one &lsquo;idea.&rsquo; This can be done by allocating a percentage of the account to the trade. This way, risk can be managed across multiple trades in a uniform manner so that total exposure, at any one time &ndash; is contained.   So, for instance &ndash; as opposed to opening up a trade at 5:1 leverage, instead choosing to risk 1% on the idea, and then determining the trade size based on the desired stop amount.    This way, if the trade doesn&rsquo;t work out &ndash; the trader has 99% of their account remaining.    The formula for doing this is as below. All the trader needs to know to perform this calculation is their account equity, desired risk percentage, and desired stop distance. The formula is in blue, while an example is in red. The example is using the following details: $9,185 Account Equity, with 1% to be risked with a 75 pip stop on this trade in USDJPY.    An easier way of performing this calculation quickly  A recent release from the FXCM App Store can enable traders to figure trade sizes based on risk percentage very quickly and intuitively directly from their charts. The tool is called the &lsquo;FXCM Risk Calculator,&rsquo; and is available for free as an add-on to Trading Station II.   In the picture below, I have the Risk Management Calculator applied with the same inputs that we had looked at in our previous example.    Notice that the &lsquo;trade size&rsquo; in the upper-right portion of the display calculates the exact trade size to fit the entry into our pre-determined 1% risk quotient, along with our 75 pip stop.    FXCM Trading Station II with Risk Management Calculator applied  --- Written by James Stanley, Trading Instructor  James is available over Twitter @JStanleyFX  To contact James, email JStanley@DailyFX.com  To be added to James distribution list, please click here.    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Guest Commentary: Sell EUR/JPY on Bounce Against the Highs</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 18:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/guest-commentary-sell-eur-jpy-on-bounce-against-the-highs-87814</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/guest-commentary-sell-eur-jpy-on-bounce-against-the-highs-87814</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[ EURJPY has been in an end diagional wave large degree wave (5) of ((3)) which we feel is complete since there was a break of the up trendline and the wave (( a )) decline from 133.80 appears to be a 5 wave impulse thus we think the wave (( b )) bounce can be sold against the highs. We would like using one of our favorite indicators the stochastic rsi in the 4 hr timeframe to determine whether or not this move lower is a trap.We would like to see the stochastic rsi indicators %K &amp; %D lines at the high end of the indicator window when prices are testing the underside of the broken up trend line before we commit to selling for at least one leg lower in the pair. Thanks for watching, come visit us at ElliottWave-Forecast.com http://ow.ly/fxGQG   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Guest Commentary: The Cable Match fires even more Pips on the Downside!</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 17:15:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/guest-commentary-the-cable-match-fires-even-more-pips-on-the-downside-87813</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/guest-commentary-the-cable-match-fires-even-more-pips-on-the-downside-87813</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Momentum remains key to Cable in the shorter term just as it was last February.  - We remain bearish from the 1.5605 50% retracement for another attempt at the 1.4835 low, the question remains when.   - The fact it has maintained momentum and the breaks on the downside encourages this test sooner rather than later.   - Our bullish EURGBP view and the match with the February collapse encourages us to stay short but lower stops.  Although the rally to 1.5280 could still prove to be a fourth wave correction and 1.5080 is the V=1.618xI target, Cable has a window to continue in line with our bullish and long EURGBP position and continue matching last February's aggressive blowout.  Therefore, having broken the previous 1.5160 low this (and potentially even 1.5115) should cap for continued weakness beyond 1.5035 to what will prove to be a C leg down to a C=A that coincides with 1.4835 low.  So we are staying short but lowering our stop to 1.5170 now as if and when Cable does eventually recover it should certainly reach 1.5270 but probably 1.5360^ and possibly retest 1.5605 in corrective consolidation.  Further videos or commentaries are available from http://www.marketvisiontv.com or @EdMatts on Twitter.  Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>The Answer to That Burning USD/JPY Question</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 16:10:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/the-answer-to-that-burning-usd-jpy-question-87810</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/the-answer-to-that-burning-usd-jpy-question-87810</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  A sudden panic has struck the forex market, kicking off a massive wave of USDJPY selling that could continue all the way down past 100 en route to the 98.50 support level.  The biggest mover in the FX markets today is the Japanese yen (JPY). The 7% decline in the Nikkei overnight kicked off a wave of deleveraging in the financial markets as investors around the world hit the panic button.  What is interesting about the move is that no one is buying the US dollar (USD), a currency that generally performs well during periods of risk aversion. The reason for this is because to de-lever means to reduce positioning, and over the past month, investors had been gradually increasing exposure to US dollars. As a result, they are cutting that exposure today.  See also: Stunning Reversals Shock the FX World   The move in the dollar has nothing to do with US fundamentals, as jobless claims dropped more than expected and house prices increased 1.3%. After rising to 363K the prior week, jobless claims fell to 340K, a number that is consistent with a continued recovery in the US labor market. These improvements keep the Federal Reserve on track to taper asset purchases later this year.  However, the burning question on everyone's minds is not about the dollar, but about the yen: Has the yen finally hit a bottom, and is the USDJPY rally over?    First and foremost, it is important to understand what triggered the selloff in USDJPY. The 10-basis-point (bp) surge in ten-year US Treasury yields yesterday caused a gap higher in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, which in turn triggered the collective selloff in the Nikkei and USDJPY. Weaker Chinese manufacturing PMI numbers added salt to the wound by exacerbating risk aversion and the slide in USDJPY.   Previously, we said there are three criteria for a continued rally in USDJPY: 1) Rising US bond yields; 2) New highs in the Nikkei; and 3) Increased Japanese purchases of foreign bonds. US bond yields increased sharply on Wednesday, and while Fed policy should keep yields in an overall uptrend, they are lower today. The Nikkei has collapsed, and according to the Ministry of Finance's weekly portfolio flows report, Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign bonds last week, and the amount they sold completely undoes the buying over the past three weeks.  As a result, this reversal in USDJPY is not just technically driven. It has fundamental support and could extend down to 100 and possibly even 98.50. However, we believe that losses will be contained to this level due to the divergence between US and Japanese monetary policies. The recent increase in JGB yields will only give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) greater conviction to ease, whereas the recent uptick in US yields will eventually attract Japanese interest.  By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD Correction Underway  JPY Strength to Remain Limited on BoJ</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 16:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-correction-underway-jpy-strength-to-remain-limited-on-boj-87811</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-correction-underway-jpy-strength-to-remain-limited-on-boj-87811</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[             Index    Last    High    Low    Daily Change (%)    Daily Range (% of ATR)       DJ-FXCM Dollar Index    10786.37    10876.79    10784.3    -0.52    131.52%     Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.52 percent lower from the open, we&rsquo;re seeing the 30-minute relative strength index come off of oversold territory, and the greenback may track higher during the North American trade as the drop in initial/continuing jobless claims paired with the 2.3 percent rise in New Home Sales instills an improved outlook for the world&rsquo;s largest economy. In turn, we should see a small rebound going into the end of the week, but the pullback from 10,876 may turn into a more meaningful correction as former trendline support appears to be acting as new resistance. Nevertheless, the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency should gather pace over the near to medium-term amid the ongoing improvement in the world&rsquo;s largest economy.  Despite the fresh 2013 high in the USDOLLAR, we&rsquo;re seeing the relative strength index persistently come off of resistance (78), and the greenback remains poised for a larger correction as the oscillator falls back from overbought territory. However, the shift in the Fed&rsquo;s policy outlook should limit the downside for the reserve currency, and we will be looking for a higher low in the index as we anticipate the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar to get carried into the second-half of the year. Indeed, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who also serves on the FOMC this year, added to the discussion of scaling back on quantitative easing and said the committee is more like to taper its asset purchases than expand the non-standard measure, and argued that the central bank should become a too big of a player in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) as he sees the economy expanding 3.0 percent this year.   The greenback weakened across the board, led by a 1.48 percent rally in the Japanese Yen, but the near-term correction in the USDJPY should produce a higher low in the exchange rate as the upward trend from earlier this year continues to take shape. Indeed, the pullback from 103.72 may gather pace in the days ahead as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) moves to the sidelines, but the deviation in the policy outlook should produce fresh highs in the dollar-yen as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledges to retain an aggressive approach in achieving the 2 percent target for inflation. In turn, the pullback in the USDJPY may offer a buying opportunity in June, and we should continue to see a series of higher highs and higher lows in the exchange rate as the BoJ remains poised to further embark on its easing cycle in the second-half of the year.   --- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst   To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.   To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.   Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.  New to FX? Watch this Video  Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Dollar Drop Steadies after Housing, Labor Data; EURUSD Holds Highs</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 15:25:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-drop-steadies-after-housing-labor-data-eurusd-holds-highs-87812</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-drop-steadies-after-housing-labor-data-eurusd-holds-highs-87812</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  THE TAKEAWAY: USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18) &gt; 340K versus 345K expected, from 363K (revised higher from 360K) &gt; House Price Index (MAR) &gt; +1.3% versus +0.8% expected, from +0.9% (revised higher from +0.7%) (m/m) &gt; New Home Sales (MAR) &gt; 454K (+2.3% m/m) versus 425K (+1.9% m/m) expected, from 444K (+1.5% m/m) (revised higher from 417K (+3.5% m/m)) &gt; USDOLLAR NEUTRAL  The Thursday economic docket is usually saturated with several secondary and tertiary US data releases, and if there was ever a day that the US Dollar needed a strong showing, it was today. After yesterday&rsquo;s Fed events as well as the turmoil in Japanese bond and equity markets, the US Dollar, most poignantly represented by the USDJPY, had been sliding all morning. While pressure remains on the greenback, the housing and labor data released this morning have put its slide in neutral &ndash; at least for now.  Of the events released, the most attention was draw to the Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18) and the New Home Sales (MAR) reports, as the most up-to-date barometers of the US economy. On the labor market side, initial claims improved, while continuing claims dropped to their lowest level in five years; both of these suggest that the US economy is moving back towards above trend labor market growth, likely near +170K in May. On the housing side, median home prices rose to their highest nominal level ever, and the new home sales three month average is holding near its highest rate since October 2008, at 442K.  Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) Chart: May 23, 2013  Charts Created using Marketscope &ndash; prepared by Christopher Vecchio  Following the releases, by 10:30 EST/14:30 GMT, the USDOLLAR was holding near its lows of the day of 10783, at 10792. The components of the index were divergent, that is, the USDJPY rallied on the news holding near &yen;101.70/80, while the EURUSD remained at its daily highs of $1.2910/20 despite the stronger US data.  --- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst  To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com  Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX   To be added to Christopher&rsquo;s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Warning Signs Clear   Watch for Further USD, JPY Strength, S&amp;amp;P Losses</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:50:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/warning-signs-clear-watch-for-further-usd-jpy-strength-s-p-losses-87803</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/warning-signs-clear-watch-for-further-usd-jpy-strength-s-p-losses-87803</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  We&rsquo;ll be the first to admit when we&rsquo;re wrong, but our retail sentiment-based predictions have been on point as we&rsquo;ve called for major USD strength. What now?  View individual currency sections:  EURUSD - Euro Bounce Presents Attractive Selling Opportunity  GBPUSD - British Pound Sees Nowhere to go but Down  USDJPY - Japanese Yen Bounce Probably only the Beginning   Gold - Gold Prices Will Likely Continue Lower  SPX500 - SPX500 Probably Set a Significant Top  AUDUSD - Australian Dollar Poised for Larger and Faster Declines  Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning  Last week we wrote plainly in favor of further US Dollar gains and even a potential Japanese Yen reversal. And though we&rsquo;ll plainly admit that we&rsquo;re probably more often wrong than right, we think this is only the beginning of USD and JPY strength.   DailyFX is the research arm of parent company FXCM Inc (NYSE: FXCM), which gives us access to (anonymous) retail sentiment data. It&rsquo;s this insider data that has historically given our (freely available to clients) sentiment-based systems an edge.   When there are so many signs pointing to the potential for a US Dollar surge, Japanese Yen reversal, and AUD/S&amp;P 500 tumble we can&rsquo;t emphasize enough that this could be a huge week/month/quarter for forex and broader financial markets.  Download all of our Sentiment-based trading strategies free via an ongoing promo on FXCMApps.com   --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Gold Prices Will Likely Continue Lower</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:45:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-prices-will-likely-continue-lower-87809</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gold-prices-will-likely-continue-lower-87809</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Gold&ndash;Retail FX crowds continue buying into Gold price weakness against the resurgent US Dollar&mdash;we like doing the opposite and selling into weakness.   Trade Implications &ndash; Gold: There&rsquo;s a risk that Gold&rsquo;s failure to take out fresh lows leaves it in a good position for a bounce. But we&rsquo;re sticking to our guns here on a potential for US Dollar strength, and very one-sided retail sentiment leaves us plainly in favor of Gold price weakness against the resurgent USD.   --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>British Pound Sees Nowhere to go but Down</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:45:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/british-pound-sees-nowhere-to-go-but-down-87808</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/british-pound-sees-nowhere-to-go-but-down-87808</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  GBPUSD &ndash; The British Pound continues to hit lows and retail forex trading crowds remain heavily net-long&mdash;we see plenty of room for further GBPUSD declines.   Trade Implications &ndash; GBPUSD: Last week we highlighted that retail traders were their most net-long GBP since it hit multi-year lows in March, and that warned that we could see a short-term bounce.   Yet our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders have not stopped buying, and indeed our Senior Technical Strategist believes that a GBPUSD move toward $1.4900 is likely before any important bounce. This fits in very well with our broader calls for a US Dollar surge.   --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Download all of our Sentiment-based trading strategies free via an ongoing promo on FXCMApps.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>SPX500 Probably Set a Significant Top</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:45:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/spx500-probably-set-a-significant-top-87807</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/spx500-probably-set-a-significant-top-87807</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  SPX500 &ndash;There&rsquo;s increasingly clear evidence that we may have seen a substantial S&amp;P 500 top, and retail CFD trader sentiment suggests this might be the start of much bigger declines.     Trade Implications &ndash; To quote last week&rsquo;s SSI report: &ldquo;Total short interest in the SPX500 contract remain near record-highs as there are far too many retail traders trying to catch THE top. Yet it&rsquo;s far more interesting to note what&rsquo;s going on with the other side of the trade: the number of open orderslong surged by over 50 percent in the past week.&rdquo;  Since then long interest has risen a further 23 percent, while short interest is down 20 percent in the same stretch. It&rsquo;s never fun to be faked out on a bear trap (in plain English, selling into a breakdown that&rsquo;s quickly retraced), but we think this could be the start of a much larger decline.   --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Australian Dollar Poised for Larger and Faster Declines</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:45:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/australian-dollar-poised-for-larger-and-faster-declines-87806</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/australian-dollar-poised-for-larger-and-faster-declines-87806</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  AUDUSD &ndash; We&rsquo;ve written repeatedly in favor of Australian Dollar weakness against the resurgent US namesake, and extremely one-sided retail forex sentiment leaves us plainly in favor of further weakness.   Trade Implications &ndash; AUDUSD: Nothing moves in a straight line, and we&rsquo;re very much aware that the risk of a short-term bounce is significant. But we can&rsquo;t ignore signs that this is simply the beginning of AUDUSD (and S&amp;P 500) weakness&mdash;we&rsquo;re watching for further weakness.   A hold below week-to-date congestion highs at $0.9840 leaves our short-term bullish trading bias intact.  --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Download all of our Sentiment-based trading strategies free via an ongoing promo on FXCMApps.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Japanese Yen Bounce Probably only the Beginning </title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:45:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/japanese-yen-bounce-probably-only-the-beginning-87805</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/japanese-yen-bounce-probably-only-the-beginning-87805</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Japanese Yen &ndash; Wow. We&rsquo;ll be the first to admit when we&rsquo;ve gotten it wrong, but we couldn&rsquo;t have been clearer in our preferences for a JPY bounce (USDJPY, EURJPY pullback). This could be the start of something big.  Trade Implications &ndash; EURJPY: To quote last week&rsquo;s article, &ldquo;we&rsquo;ve writtenrepeatedly in favor of USDJPY and EURJPY strength&hellip;. But we can&rsquo;t ignore the warning signs: our Senior Strategist points out that a mere 3% of professionals polled believe the JPY will trade higher&mdash;a historic extreme. Our proprietary retail FX trader sample is at its most short EURJPY on record.&rdquo;  It&rsquo;s no surprise that retail traders have bought into the recent dip, but the question&rsquo;s clear&mdash;is this the start of a larger pullback? That much we don&rsquo;t know yet, but the fact that professional sentiment and positioning was so incredibly one-sided warns of the potential for JPY strength (USDJPY, EURJPY weakness).   Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Download all of our Sentiment-based trading strategies free via an ongoing promo on FXCMApps.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Euro Bounce Presents Attractive Selling Opportunity</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:45:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-bounce-presents-attractive-selling-opportunity-87804</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-bounce-presents-attractive-selling-opportunity-87804</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  EURUSD &ndash; Retail forex traders have recently been selling into Euro strength against the otherwise-resurgent US Dollar&mdash;normally enough to make us bullish. But we still generally favor USD strength.   Trade Implications &ndash; EURUSD: Last week we wrote that we were plainly in favor of further Euro weakness against the high-flying USD. And though we&rsquo;ll never make a habit of ignoring important shifts in retail sentiment, the fact that the US Dollar looks to take out fresh highs suggests this is a minor EURUSD correction and potentially an opportunity to sell.   Only a EURUSD break above $1.3028 would shift our bearish trading bias.   --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Download all of our Sentiment-based trading strategies free via an ongoing promo on FXCMApps.com   To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.     Contact David via   Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX  Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Scalping with Michael Boutros on DailyFX Plus 5/23</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 13:56:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/scalping-with-michael-boutros-on-dailyfx-plus-5-23-87802</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/scalping-with-michael-boutros-on-dailyfx-plus-5-23-87802</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  ---Hosted by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX  To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or follow him on Twitter @MBForex  To be added to Michael&rsquo;s distribution list Click Here  Introduction to Scalping Strategies Webinar  Beginner Fibonacci Expo Presentation  New to Forex Trading? Watch this Video   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Stunning Reversals Shock the FX World</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 13:20:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/stunning-reversals-shock-the-fx-world-87791</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/stunning-reversals-shock-the-fx-world-87791</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Extreme volatility and sudden reversals have hit world currency and equity markets, and the US dollar has now surrendered recent gains and suffered a massive selloff against the Japanese yen.   In what was a very volatile day, the US dollar (USD) and US stocks made a complete U-turn in the last two hours of North American tradingon Wednesday, shifting lower very quickly. The selloff in the financial markets coincided with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, but what was interesting above the move was that traders had a very different reaction to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony earlier in the day and the late-day Fed minutes even though the underlying implications of both were the same.     Early Wednesday, the dollar and US equities soared after Bernanke said the Fed could cut the pace of asset purchases in the next few meetings. Investors focused on his optimism even though a reduction in asset purchases would mean that the central bank is taking the punchbowl away, which should be negative for equities.   However, when the Fed minutes confirmed that the central bank is having a lively discussion about slowing asset purchases, the S&amp;P 500 gave back all of its early gains to end the day down 0.83%. The dollar also followed lower even though fewer asset purchases would be positive for the greenback.   The only market that had a consistent and logical reaction was Treasuries. Ten-year Treasury yields rose above 2% for the first time in two months, which suggests that the pullback in USDJPY should only be temporary.    According to the Fed minutes, there's still a wide division within the central bank with some members calling for the Fed to dial back quantitative easing (QE) measures as early as June. However, the majority still believes that more progress is needed before changes can be made. This is consistent with the message from Bernanke and New York Fed President William Dudley, both of whom suggested that a reduction in bond purchases is a few months away.    The USDJPY rose to a 4.5-year high of 103.73 on Wednesday, and as long as US Treasury yields continue to increase, we expect the currency pair to make new highs.   On Thursday, the US economic calendar will feature jobless claims, the house price index, and new home sales reports.  Nikkei Triggers Massive USD/JPY Selloff  A more-than-7% plunge in the Nikkei overnight triggered a massive selloff in USDJPYwith the pair tumbling more than 250 points from the highs of the Asian session before finally finding some support near the 101.00 level. The Nikkei fell very hard as profit taking and investor concerns over the volatility in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market sent shares tumbling, creating a massive risk-off environment that reverberated throughout the night.  The JGB market has been the Achilles heel for the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as rates have become much more volatile since the start of the Bank&rsquo;s massive liquidity program. This new turbulence has spooked investors and resulted in the worst selloff in the Nikkei in several years. The plunge was precipitated by small investors, whose participation has steadily increased over the past several months, during which the Nikkei climbed to fresh multi-year highs.  The drop in USDJPY was also driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data, which dropped below the key 50 boom/bust line, suggesting that the sector is contracting for the first time this year. The pair has been grossly overbought and was due for a correction, and despite the market's assessment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke&rsquo;s testimony about QE, we continue to believe that the prospect of tapering asset purchases is slim to none for the foreseeable future as long as the US economy shows signs of slowing.   Euro Gains as Profit-Taking Sets in  The euro (EUR) fell aggressively alongside other major currencies against the US dollar, but even with the rally, the EURUSD continues to hold above 1.28, a level that has supported the currency pair since the beginning of April. Whether this level will continue to hold, however, depends on Thursday's PMI reports and the speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi.    A large part of the recent euro selloff was caused by concerns regarding the health of the Eurozone economy. Because the region is in recession, the ECB felt the need to ease monetary policy, but overnight, EURUSD got a boost from slightly better flash PMI data with the EZ Composite coming in at 47.7 versus 47.2 expected.   The index remains deep in contractionary territory, but the sense of stability provided hope that worst may be over for the region, and growth may begin to improve into the summer months. The EURUSD bounced back to 1.2900 on overall dollar weakness and could target the 1.2950 level later Thursday if the profit-taking rally continues.  How much of a recovery (if at all) the euro will enjoy will depend on what ECB President Draghi says in his speech, "The Future of Europe in the Global Economy." In the interest of preventing the euro from recovering sharply, we believe that Draghi will remind the market the ECB is still thinking about negative interest rates and buying asset-backed securities (ABS). Although the bar may be high, a weak euro helps the central bank's efforts to stimulate the economy, and the ECB will look to hold onto any and all support it can get for the economy.    A number of other Eurozone policymakers will also be speaking on Thursday, so keep your eyes on the newswires.  British Pound (GBP) Crushed by New Data   The British pound (GBP) sold off aggressively against the euro and US dollar following disappointing economic data and dovish Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes. First-quarter GDP numbers are expected Thursday, and while the recent improvement in trade activity and rise in retail sales in the first three months of the year should boost growth, sterling may not see much benefit from a stronger number as investors overweight more recent data.   Sterling hit a one-month low today after UK retail sales dropped 1.3% in the month of April. This pullback in spending took the market by complete surprise, as economists were looking for a flat reading, and the sticker shock of the release should keep the currency weak.   Commodity Dollars Dropping Like Rocks  Once again, the Australian dollar (AUD), New Zealand dollar (NZD), and Canadian dollar (CAD) all sold off aggressively against the greenback. The recent weakness has taken the AUD and CAD to their lowest levels in 11 months and the NZD to its lowest level in 8 months. While New Zealand's economy is probably the strongest, its currency has been hit the hardest on a day-to-day basis.    The decline in commodity prices is contributing to the pressure on the commodity currencies, especially the AUD, which has fallen in lockstep with gold prices. Unfortunately, the recent rate cut by the ReserveBank of Australia (RBA) and the rise in Australian stocks has not made Australians feel any better about the outlook for the economy. According to Westpac, consumer confidence dropped 7% this month, the largest decline in 17 months.    Consumer demand in Canada is also anemic, contributing to the weakness in the loonie. Retail sales were flat in March after growing 0.7% in February, and excluding autos, sales declined 0.2%.    While no major economic reports were expected from the commodity-producing countries overnight, the AUD, NZD, and CAD could still endure big moves on the back of Chinese manufacturing numbers.  By Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Euro Continues to Carve Lower Top  ECB Increasingly Cautious</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:58:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-continues-to-carve-lower-top-ecb-increasingly-cautious-87792</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-continues-to-carve-lower-top-ecb-increasingly-cautious-87792</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Talking Points   Euro: PMI Contracts at Slower Pace, More ECB Easing Ahead   British Pound: U.K. 1Q GDP Expands 0.3%, BoE to Target Inflation   U.S. Dollar: Jobless Claims Tops Forecast- House Prices, New Home Sales on Tap   Euro: PMI Contracts at Slower Pace, More ECB Easing Ahead  The Euro advanced to an overnight high of 1.2903 as the purchasing manager index showed manufacturing and service-based activity in Europe contracting at a slower pace in May, but the rebound in the single currency is likely to be short-lived as the region remains mired in recession.  European Central Bank board member Peter Praet said the board is looking &lsquo;at all possibilities&rsquo; to shore up the ailing economy as the region struggles to return to growth, while Governing Council member Christian Noyer noted that the central bank is looking to introduce &lsquo;monetary policy instruments that could further reduce fragmentation&rsquo; across the monetary union as the governments operating under the single currency struggle to get their house in order.  At the same time, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny warned that there&rsquo;s little &lsquo;indication that there will be a significant improvement in the economic situation in the short term,&rsquo; and warned that &lsquo;we may see worse numbers in the course of the year&rsquo; as he sees the economy contracting in 2013.  As a growing number of Governing Council officials turn increasingly cautious on the economy, we should see the ECB push the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low in the second-half of the year, and it seems as though the central bank will also introduce more non-standard measures in the coming months in an effort to boost private sector lending.   As the EURUSD retains the range-bound price action from earlier this week, the pair should continue to carve a lower top going into the final days of May, and we should see the head-and-shoulders pattern continue to take shape in June as the ECB retains a dovish tone for monetary policy. In turn, we are still looking for a move back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50, and we may see the EURUSD fail to maintain the rebound from July (1.2041) as European policy makers struggle to address the risks surrounding the region.  British Pound: U.K. 1Q GDP Expands 0.3%, BoE to Target Inflation  The British Pound pared the sharp decline from earlier this week, with the GBPUSD climbing to a high of 1.5093, and the sterling may continue track higher in the days ahead as the fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. dampens speculation for more quantitative easing.  Indeed, the preliminary GDP reading showed the U.K. economy expanding 0.3% in the first quarter, with private sector consumption advancing 0.1%, and it seems as though the Bank of England (BoE) is slowly moving away from its easing cycle as the region skirts a triple-dip recession.  Although the Monetary Policy Committee has &lsquo;had a hard time rebalancing&rsquo; the economy, BoE board member Ben Broadbent said that the central bank is focus on achieving the 2% target for inflation, and we may see a growing number of BoE officials scale back their willingness to expand the balance sheet further as price growth is expected to accelerate throughout the course of the year.  As the GBPUSD continues to give back the rebound from back in March (1.4830), we may see the pair develop a broader downward trend in the days ahead, but an upward revision in the preliminary 1Q GDP report may prop up the sterling over the next 24-hours of trading as it dampens bets for more QE.As a result, we may see the GBPUSD carve out a higher low ahead of the next BoE interest rate decision on June 6, and the sterling may outperform against its major counterparts in the second-half of 2013 amid the shift in the policy outlook.  U.S. Dollar: Jobless Claims Tops Forecast- House Prices, New Home Sales on Tap  The greenback lost ground on Thursday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)slipping to a low of 10,784, but the reserve currency may track higher during the North American trade as the economic docket is expected to instill an improved outlook for the U.K.  Indeed, U.S. initial and continuing claims both beat market expectations amid the ongoing improvement in employment, and the budding recovery in the housing market may further increase the appeal of greenback as home prices are expected to increase another 0.8% in March, while New Home Sales are projected to rise 1.9% in April.  FX Upcoming     Currency    GMT    EDT    Release    Expected    Prior       USD    13:00    9:00    House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)    0.8%    0.7%         USD    13:00    9:00    House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)      1.4%         USD    14:00    10:00    New Home Sales (APR)    425K    417K         USD    14:00    10:00    New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)    1.9%    1.5%         EUR    14:00    10:00    Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A)    -21.8    -22.3         USD    15:00    11:00    Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (MAY)    -5    -5         EUR    17:30    13:30    ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy             EUR    19:30    15:30    ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks on Euro Economy           --- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst  To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong  To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.  Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum  Trading the volatile hours of the US open? Use this app to help find breakouts during these market conditions.  RelatedArticles:  Weekly Currency Trading Forecast   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Forex Strategy 05.23.2013: Stay Short GBPUSD</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:30:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-strategy-05-23-2013-stay-short-gbpusd-87793</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-strategy-05-23-2013-stay-short-gbpusd-87793</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  I entered short GBPUSD at 1.5533. Prices have now met my second objective to test the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.5029. I will continue to hold short, looking for a daily close below this barrier to expose the 50% level at 1.4850. The stop-loss has been revised to trigger on a close above 1.5322, the May 16 swing high.  SEE CHART HERE   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:28:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87794</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87794</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  EUR/USD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1.2901, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 1.2966. Near-term support is at 1.2827, the 38.2% Fib expansion. A drop beneath that aims for a rising trend line set from mid-November 2012 (1.2790) and the 50% expansion at 1.2774.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/JPY Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:27:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87796</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87796</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/JPY Technical Analysis- Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers are testing below initial support at 101.84, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, to challenge the 23.6% level at 100.68. A break below that aims for the 38.2% level at 98.80. Near-term resistance is at 103.73, the May 22 high.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>GBP/USD Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:27:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87795</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87795</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  GBP/USD Technical Analysis &ndash; Prices declined as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-March. Sellers are now testing support at 1.5029, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 50% level at 1.4850. We continue to hold short, Near-term falling channel resistance is at 1.5207, with a above that aiming for the May 16 high at 1.5322.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>AUD/USD Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:26:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87797</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87797</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  AUD/USD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices are testing support in the 0.9663-82 area, marked by the November 23 2011 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that eyes the 0.9580-84 region. Near-term resistance is at 0.9841, the May 21 swing high. Positive RSI divergence argues in favor of an upside scenario.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>NZD/USD Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:25:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87798</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87798</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  NZD/USD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices are testing support at 0.8052, the November 16 2012 low. A break below that aims for the 0.80 figure and the September 5 2012 low at 0.7914, a barrier reinforced by a major rising trend line set from June 2009 (now at 0.7879). Near-term resistance is at 0.8181, a formerly broken horizontal support level.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CAD Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:23:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87799</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87799</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/CAD Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices advanced as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above support at a rising trend line set from mid-September 2012. The pair has cleared resistance at 1.0338, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 76.4% level at 1.0415. The 1.0338 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a turn back beneath that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1.0276.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CHF Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:22:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87800</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87800</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  USD/CHF Technical Analysis- Prices are testing support at 0.9687, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that eyeing the 38.2% level at 0.9596. Near-term resistance is at 0.9838, the May 22 swing high. Negative RSI divergence argues in favor of a downside scenario.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>US Dollar Technical Analysis 05.23.2013</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 12:20:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/us-dollar-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87801</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/us-dollar-technical-analysis-05-23-2013-87801</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  US Dollar Technical Analysis&ndash; Prices invalidated a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern to break above resistance at 10822, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now target the 61.8% level at 10922, with a break above that exposing the 76.4% Fib at 11045. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum however and hints the move higher may be short-lived. The 10822 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that initially eyeing the 38.2% expansion at 10722.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/JPY Takes Biggest Plunge in Three Years After Nikkei Bubble Bursts</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 11:14:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-takes-biggest-plunge-in-three-years-after-nikkei-bubble-bursts-87790</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-takes-biggest-plunge-in-three-years-after-nikkei-bubble-bursts-87790</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP  After touching its highest level in four and a half years, the USDJPY staged a massive overnight reversal, falling from a high of &yen;103.73 on Wednesday to as low as 100.82 in early European trading hours today. In a sell-off that is being credited to the weak Chinese private sector manufacturing report, the Nikkei 225 plunged -7.32%, the single largest drop since October 2008 &ndash; the beginning of the end for global equities. However, Japanese Economic Minister Akira Amari said that is normal for equity losses to boost the domestic currency, and that the stock bubble hadn&rsquo;t yet popped (I think a decline of this magnitude in one session is a mini-bubble bursting); thus Yen losses should be insulated.  Despite the single greatest drop in three years for the USDJPY, the US Dollar overall remains resilient, with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) retaining some of yesterday&rsquo;s gains, while holding its ground against the commodity currencies. A lot has been said about the scope of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke&rsquo;s comments yesterday &ndash; that QE3 would remain in place until data improved, and if it did, then the scale of asset purchase could decline &ndash; but to me, it&rsquo;s more of the same.   Chairman Bernanke reiterated nearly every talking point from the Fed over the past few weeks, including from those in his inner circle, such as NY Fed President William Dudley. As noted yesterday, the Fed&rsquo;s tone is and remains: &lsquo;the economy is improving, but isn&rsquo;t great yet; the labor market is steadily moving upwards, but isn&rsquo;t where it should be for us to withdraw stimulus; disinflation is setting in, but stronger consumption persists; and the payroll tax and ensuing budget sequestration have created quite the fiscal drag.&rsquo; I don&rsquo;t expect any sort of news about a taper at the June meeting (barring a +300K NFP print); any such major shift in policy is likely to occur at the September meeting.  Taking a look at European credit, higher peripheral yields alongside Yen strength has prevented the EURUSD from staging a bigger rally today. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 1.320% (+4.4-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 1.746% (+7.8-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 3.987% (+8.1-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 4.228% (+7.0-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.   RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:40 GMT  JPY: +1.74%  CHF: +1.07%  CAD: +0.28%  NZD:+0.26%  EUR:+0.19%  GBP:+0.17%  AUD:+0.05%  Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.47% (+0.46%past 5-days)  ECONOMIC CALENDAR  See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK  EURUSD: The EURUSD has continued to tick higher, as expected, with price basing below the important $1.2875/80 level. I maintain that &ldquo;now that price has closed below the late-April swing low at 1.2950/60, there&rsquo;s significant evidence in place to suggest that a test of the 2013 lows may be around the corner, with sellers eying 1.2740/50 to the downside.&rdquo; My bearish bias would be negated on a weekly close &gt;1.3000/30 (May 14 swing high and 200-SMA).I prefer selling rallies into 1.2975/3000.   USDJPY: Yesterday I said that &ldquo;pressure is back upwards ahead of the BoJ Rate Decision and Fed events on Wednesday.&rdquo; Certainly, the USDJPY is testing the highs again, trading just short of &yen;103.00. While gains may be stifled momentarily by 103.25/50, it is possible that a blowout leads to a great move towards the mid-106.00s. As for support, that &ldquo;comes in at 102.20, while there have been a notable amount of bids as the USDJPY has traded into the 101.80s. Should this bottom floor break, a deeper pullback towards 101.10/40 and 100.30 will be eyed.&rdquo;  GBPUSD: Yesterday I said: &ldquo;An Inside Day capped by the 8-EMA suggests that yesterday was merely a pause in the downtrend rather than a reversal. Today, the GBPUSD is back pressuring last week&rsquo;s lows. With price holding below the $1.5200/20 region I was watching last week, a move towards the early-April lows at 1.5035/75 now eyed&hellip;.with daily RSI support cracked, the plan is to sell rallies.&rdquo; Spurred by weak UK consumption data, the GBPUSD has now sliced through 1.5100 and is well on its way towards the psychologically significant 1.5000 level. Big picture: the GBPUSD may have initiated a Bear Flag that eyes a sell-off into 1.4200, in conjunction with the Double Top off of 1.6300 that has similar implications.&rdquo;  AUDUSD: No change: &ldquo;The AUDUSD closed below the key 0.9860 level last week, ascending channel support off of the October 2011 and June 2012 lows, as well as the weekly 200-DMA. That is to suggest that a top in the pair back to the July 2011 high at 1.1079 is in place, though I&rsquo;d prefer for a monthly close below 0.9860/900 for better confirmation. Now, a deeper pullback towards 0.9580 and 0.9380/400 is beginning. In the very near-term, with the weekly RSI at the lowest level since the height of the global financial crisis in the 4Q&rsquo;08, the AUDUSD is probably close to a point of near-term exhaustion. Rebounds should be sold.&rdquo;  S&amp;P 500: No change as the intraweek Bull Flag broke to the upside and hit top rail resistance at 1665 on Friday: &ldquo;The headline index remains strong although there is some theoretical resistance coming up (this is unchartered territory, so forecasting price relies heavily on valuations, mathematical relationship, and pattern analysis)&hellip;It&rsquo;s hard to be bearish risk right now, but it is worth noting that the divergence between price and RSI continues, suggesting that few new hands are coming into the market to support price (recent volume figures would agree).&rdquo; Channel resistance from mid-April comes in at 1670, while support is at 1648 (8-EMA) and 1642 (steep channel support).  GOLD: No change: &ldquo;If the US Dollar turns around, however (as many of the techs are starting to point to), then Gold will have a difficult gaining momentum higher. Indeed this has been the case, with Gold failing to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April meltdown at $1487.65, only peaking above it by 35 cents for a moment a few weeks ago.&rdquo; Price is back under 1400, and if US yields keep firming, a return to the lows at 1321.59 shouldn&rsquo;t be ruled out.  --- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst  To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com  Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX   To be added to Christopher&rsquo;s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>STRONG START TO NEW TAX YEAR FOR BARCLAYS STOCKBROKERS’ FUNDS ACTIVITY</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 11:01:02 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/-87788</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/-87788</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[New analysis from Barclays Stockbrokers1 reveals a strong start to the new tax year for funds investing by its clients. The analysis revealed April saw clients investment activity into funds (by total size of investments) at a level more than double that seen in April 2012 (110% increase) and a 16% increase compared to March 2013.
&nbsp;
The findings for the month of April 2013 also highlighted the top twenty fund purchases1 made by clients, and found that the Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific (including Japan) sectors featured prominently in the top 10. The Legg Mason Japan Equity fund took the top spot for client investment in April, with the Newton Asian Income fund in second spot and the First State Global Emerging Markets Leaders fund in third place.
&nbsp;
Client appetite for UK funds in April remained consistent with previous months, accounting for 40% of entries in the list of the 20 top purchased funds; April also saw a diverse focus of client interest with funds from Specialist, European, North American and Global sectors appearing in addition. With gold prices at their lowest level for two years, the Blackrock Gold &amp; General fund returned to the list in 20th place.
&nbsp;
Further analysis found April 2013 saw a 72% increase in the number of clients buying funds compared to the same month last year.
&nbsp;
Alastair Thaw, Head of Investor Product at Barclays Stockbrokers, said: &ldquo;We saw a strong start to the new tax year for our clients investing into funds, and while UK funds continued to dominate the top 20 purchased funds, clients continue to show interest in other markets too. For example as Japanese markets continued their gains of the last six months, we saw the Legg Mason Japan Equity fund prove popular as the most purchased fund by clients in April.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;For the last year Barclays Stockbrokers clients have benefitted from our enhanced funds offering. Last February we combined our experience and expertise in stock broking with an expanded funds offering in a single place, meaning investors have a choice of a wide range of funds which they can access with ease and at competitive prices. With our regular investment service, investors can choose to add lump sums or drip feed sums into the market over time to build up their investments and maximise tax efficient benefits too, particularly in the new tax year for 2013/14. We have seen growing appetite from our clients for investing in funds, and anticipate this will continue throughout 2013.&rdquo;&nbsp;]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Yen Continues to Rise as Nikkei Closes With a 4 Year Record Decline</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 10:43:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/yen-continues-to-rise-as-nikkei-closes-with-a-4-year-record-decline-87789</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/yen-continues-to-rise-as-nikkei-closes-with-a-4-year-record-decline-87789</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The story of the European and Asian session remains the massive gains in the Yen, as USD/JPY fell 250 points and below 101.00 for the first time in nearly two weeks. The Yen strength accompanies significant losses in European and Asian equities, as well as a US Futures showing a sharp tradeoff, therefore suggesting that the Yen strength is due to risk aversion.  Japan&rsquo;s equity index Nikkei closed down 7.32%, the biggest daily decline since October 2008. The decline in Nikkei was attributed to comments from Fed Chief Bernanke suggesting an unwinding of QE if economic signs stabilize and due to a weaker than expected China Manufacturing PMI.   Japan&rsquo;s officials immediately jumped into action and tried to return confidence to the markets. Economy Minister Amari said the decline today was a reaction to China, and said recent equity gains in Japan were faster than expected. He further remarked on the Yen move by saying hat it is natural for currencies and stocks to move together. Finance Minister Aso also spoke today, but declined to comment on the Yen level.  The Swiss Franc is also a big winner in today&rsquo;s trading, which makes sense in a risk-aversion environment. However, what&rsquo;s strange is USD is losing to most major currencies in today&rsquo;s trading. USD is usually a risk-aversion correlated currency when trading against high-yield currencies like Aussie and Kiwi. Furthermore, many are saying Bernanke&rsquo;s less-dovish comments were responsible for this risk-off trend, but less-dovish comments from the Fed should be US Dollar positive.   In economic releases, Euro-zone PMI&rsquo;s slightly beat expectations in a preliminary release for May. The Euro rose slightly following the news. UK GDP was confirmed to have expanded by 0.3% in Q1, in line with a previous estimate released in April.   In Spain, 3,5, and 12-year bonds sold for 4.08 billion Euros, beating a maximum target of 4.0 billion Euros. 2026 bonds were sold for a 4.54% yield versus 4.336% on May 9.   USD/JPY seems to have found some interim support around the 101.00 line, but it is unclear if that means the decline is over. A rising trend line from May may provide resistance around 101.48.   (Did you understand all the terms used in today&rsquo;s report? If so, test your skills with DailyFX&rsquo;s Trading IQ Quiz.)   USDJPY 4-Hour: May 23, 2013  Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Bernanke Gives the Buck His Blessing</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 10:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/bernanke-gives-the-buck-his-blessing-87786</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/bernanke-gives-the-buck-his-blessing-87786</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Fed Chairman Bernanke&rsquo;s comments about a potential unwinding of QE measures have given the US dollar rally new life, and the greenback is again soaring against the euro, yen, and commodity dollars.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed this morning that the central bank could reduce its pace of asset purchases "in the next few meetings." It took a while for Bernanke to make his point, and the US dollar (USD) endured a rollercoaster ride as a result, but the takeaway from his speech is clear: The Fed is serious about winding down quantitative easing (QE) and all of the speculation surrounding this possibility is now validated.  The US dollar has been on a tear since the beginning of the month and should extend its gains now that Bernanke green-lighted the rally. While the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) have been hit the hardest by USD gains today, the biggest milestone was reached in USDJPY, which rose to a fresh 4.5-year high.   As long as there isn't a surprise contraction in the US economy in the late-second and early-third quarters, we believe the Federal Reserve plans to reduce monthly bond purchases in September. New York Fed President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voter William Dudley was a bit more specific than Bernanke this morning, saying it could be three to four months, which puts us right into the next meeting with a quarterly press conference from the Fed Chairman. This is a major change in policy, and Bernanke will want to manage the market's future expectations. The press conference gives him ample opportunity to do so.    Bernanke actually started his testimony sounding cautious, which caused the US dollar to tank. He said the job market was weak despite recent gains and warned that premature tightening risks slowing or ending the overall recovery.    On tapering, Bernanke said "we may or may not sell assets" and could "raise or lower purchases pace depending on data." However, almost immediately, he added that the Fed could reduce the pace of purchases in the next few meetings if economic data continues to improve, and this sent the dollar soaring.    While the Fed Chairman is worried about the high level of unemployment and the "substantial drag" that fiscal restraint puts on 2013 growth, inflation is low and the current level of interest rates is adding to employment, wealth, and the housing market. He spent a lot of time talking about an exit strategy, saying that winding down QE will be the first part of that plan and that allowing securities to roll off could be part of the strategy. His concerns about frothiness and bubbles also suggest the Fed is prepping for an exit even though the central bank will take baby steps towards it.   Now that the dollar rally has Bernanke's blessing, the greenback could extend its gains, especially if tomorrow's Eurozone PMI numbers surprise to the downside and European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi repeats that more Eurozone stimulus is likely.    The FOMC minutes will be released today as well, and while this still poses a risk to the dollar, the impact should limited because the Fed had stale data at that meeting.  By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>UK GDP Expansion Confirmed at 0.3% in Q1</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 09:30:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/uk-gdp-expansion-confirmed-at-0-3-in-q1-87787</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/uk-gdp-expansion-confirmed-at-0-3-in-q1-87787</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  THE TAKEAWAY: UK GDP confirmed at 0.3% in Q1 -&gt; Consumer and government spending disappoints expectations -&gt; Pound trading steady  A second estimate of the UK gross domestic product confirmed that the economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013. The economic expansion saved the UK from a triple dip recession. The GDP rose 0.6% from Q1 2012, according to the UK Office for National Statistics.   Private consumption increased by 0.1% in Q1, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase. Government spending was unchanged, also disappointing expectations for a 0.2% increase. However, exports declined 0.8% in the first quarter, better than expectations for the exports to decline 1.0%.  The Pound did not react significantly to the GDP release, and Cable is trading around 1.5075 at the time of this writing. GBP/USD may next see support by the key 1.5000 figure, and the pair may again see resistance by the 1.5250 figure.  (How does a Currency War affect your FX trading? Take our free course to find out!)  GBPUSDDaily: May 23, 2013  Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0  -- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Yen to Extend Gains as US Data Underpins QE3 Reduction Bets</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 08:56:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/yen-to-extend-gains-as-us-data-underpins-qe3-reduction-bets-87785</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/yen-to-extend-gains-as-us-data-underpins-qe3-reduction-bets-87785</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The Japanese Yen looks likely to extend as supportive US economic data underpins bets on near-term reduction in Fed stimulus, driving risk aversion.  Talking Points   Yen Soars as Asian Stocks Plummet on QE3 Reduction Bets, China PMI Miss   Eurozone PMIs Boost Euro But Fail to Turn the Tide of Broad Risk Aversion   Improved US Home Sales, Jobless Claims Data May Fuel Risk-Off Momentum    The Japanese Yen soared in overnight trade, adding as much as 2.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as risk aversion gripped Asian stock exchanges and prompted an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index slid 3.6 percent in a move the newswires chalked up to hints of near-term QE3 reduction from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI report. Figures from HSBC suggested factory-sector activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in seven months in the world&rsquo;s second-largest economy.  Looking ahead, a nominally supportive set of Eurozone PMI figures seems to be doing little to underpin risk appetite in early European trade. The data showed manufacturing- and service-sector activity contracted at a slower pace than economists expected, although the overall trend still firmly points to continued recession in the second quarter. The Euro advanced on the results but S&amp;P 500 index futures continue to trade sharply lower, hinting the dour mood seen in Asia is likely to carry forward as Wall Street comes online. Updated first-quarterUK GDP numbers printed in line with earlier estimates and likewise offer little that can meaningfully derail established momentum.  On balance, this points to continued Yen strength ahead. US New Home Sales and weekly Jobless Claims data are on tap ahead, with improvements expected on both fronts. That is likely to reinforce the idea that the Fed may taper asset purchases over the next several FOMC meetings, which ought to feed into continued risk aversion. For the US Dollar, the most profound response to these developments is likely to be reflected as continued USDJPY weakness.   Asia Session:     GMT    CCY    EVENT    ACT    EXP    PREV       1:00    AUD    Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY)    2.3%    -    2.2%       1:45    CNY    HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY)    49.6    50.4    50.4       5:00    JPY    BOJ Monthly Economic Report (MAY)    -    -    -     Euro Session:     GMT    CCY    EVENT    EXP/ACT    PREV    IMPACT       7:00    EUR    French PMI Services (MAY P)    44.3 (A)    44.3    Low       7:00    EUR    French PMI Manufacturing (MAY P)    45.5 (A)    44.4    Low       7:30    EUR    German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A)    49.0 (A)    48.1    Medium       7:30    EUR    German PMI Services (MAY A)    49.8 (A)    49.6    Medium       8:00    EUR    Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY A)    47.8 (A)    46.7    Medium       8:00    EUR    Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY A)    47.5 (A)    47.0    Medium       8:00    EUR    Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A)    47.7 (A)    46.9    Medium       8:30    GBP    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)    0.3% (A)    0.3%    High       8:30    GBP    Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)    0.6% (A)    0.6%    High       8:30    GBP    Private Consumption (1Q P)    0.1% (A)    0.4%    Low       8:30    GBP    Government Spending (1Q P)    0.0% (A)    0.6%    Low       8:30    GBP    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)    -0.8% (A)    -0.2%    Low       8:30    GBP    Imports (1Q P)    -0.5% (A)    -1.0%    Low       8:30    GBP    Exports (1Q P)    -0.8% (A)    -1.6%    Low       8:30    GBP    Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)    -0.4% (A)    -0.8%    Low       8:30    GBP    Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)    0.7% (A)    0.8%    Low       8:30    GBP    Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)    0.2% (A)    0.9%    Low       8:30    GBP    Index of Services (3M/3M) (MAR)    0.6% (A)    0.1%    Low       8:30    EUR    Spain to Sell 2016, 2018 and 2026 Bonds    -    -    Low       10:05    USD    Fed&rsquo;s Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy    -    -    Low     Critical Levels:     CCY    SUPPORT    RESISTANCE       EURUSD    1.2795    1.2959       GBPUSD    1.4989    1.5143     --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Euro Trades Higher on Better than Expected PMIs</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 08:56:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-trades-higher-on-better-than-expected-pmis-87784</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/euro-trades-higher-on-better-than-expected-pmis-87784</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone composite PMI reported at 47.8 in May -&gt; Markit says recession likely to continue in Q2 -&gt; Euro trading higher  The Euro-zone composite output index beat expectations for May in an initial estimate released by Markit. The Composite PMI was reported at 47.8, higher than expectations for 47.2 and up from 46.9 in April. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index rose to 47.8 and beat expectations for 47.0; the index for services rose to 47.5 and beat expectations for 47.2. The flash PMI release is based on 85% of total replies to the surveys, and an index result below 50.0 indicates sector decline.  The German PMI for Manufacturing was reported higher in May at 49.0, beating expectations for 48.5. The German services PMI disappointed expectations at 49.8. The French PMI for manufacturing rose to 45.5 and beat expectations for a 44.7 index, but the PMI for services disappointed expectations at 44.3.  Markit&rsquo;s Chief Economist Chris Williamson said the May PMI&rsquo;s indicate that the six-quarter recession is likely to continue into a seventh quarter in Q2 of 2013. &ldquo;The economy is likely to contract in the second quarter at a similar rate to the 0.2% decline seen in the first three months of the year,&rdquo; said Williamson.   However, the Euro rose higher following the release, as the PMI&rsquo;s were better than expected. EUR/USD is trading around 1.2875 at the time of this writing, and resistance may be provided by the key 1.3000 figure. A downward trend line from November 2011 may provide support near here.   (How does a Currency War affect your FX trading? Take our free course to find out!)  EURUSDDaily: May 23, 2013  Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0  -- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Dollar Rallies after Fed Talks QE3 Exit, Will EUR/USD Break 1.2800?</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 04:22:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-rallies-after-fed-talks-qe3-exit-will-eur-usd-break-1-2800-87783</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-rallies-after-fed-talks-qe3-exit-will-eur-usd-break-1-2800-87783</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[   Dollar Rallies after Fed Talks QE3 Exit, Will EUR/USD Break 1.2800?   Japanese Yen Traders See the Limits, Ill Side Effects of BoJ Stimulus   British Pound: A Round of Data and Nothing Went the Sterling&rsquo;s Way   Euro Optimism to be Tested by Recession Warning in PMI Data   Australian Dollar Slides Further on Stimulus Concerns, Chinese Data   Canadian Dollar Breaks from Multi-Year Range with Help of Retail Stats   Gold: Steady Fed and BoJ Stimulus Programs Dollar Bullish, Gold Bearish    Dollar Rallies after Fed Talks QE3 Exit, Will EUR/USD Break 1.2800?  The markets have sought out guidance on the future of the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s QE3 plans to shape their speculation, and that is exactly what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the FOMC minutes offered. Tentative but tangible commentary about the eventual reduction in the current $85 billion-per-month program spurred the traditional &lsquo;risk aversion&rsquo; move from the capital markets. For the S&amp;P 500, an intraday reversal tore the index from fresh record highs to a dangerous shift in momentum that threatens a deeper rollover. Leading the safe havens &ndash; and a direct victim of the supply-and-demand elements of the US money supply &ndash; the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker = USDollar) surged above 10,850 to its highest level since July 2010. These are both meaningful developments, but they don&rsquo;t exactly confirm conviction just yet. Just like a technical breakout does not necessarily guarantee a lasting trend, a fundamental volatility swell does not ensure a systemic shift in capital.  To determine whether the market will finally pitch into a fear-driven deleveraging and risk aversion spiral, we need to see the proper fundamental catalyst to unite investors&rsquo; fears about their exposure. The Fed&rsquo;s commentary does a little more than sow the seeds of doubt. The action began in the New York morning session when central bank head Bernanke testified before Congress&rsquo; Joint Economic Committee. Much of what he offered were words of caution. He clearly warned that premature tightening could undermine the US economy&rsquo;s recovery. Yet, tightening and tempering are two different concepts. For speculators that have accessed record levels of leverage through the NYSE and have driven carry-favored yen crosses far off track of their yield differentials, what really stuck out was his suggestion that &ldquo;in the next few meetings&hellip;(they) could take a step down in (their) pace of purchases.&rdquo; How much in the way of capital gains can investors hope to squeeze out in just a few more months &ndash; because interest / yields / dividends aren&rsquo;t up to par.   The hand wringing intensified a few hours later when the transcript of the Federal Open Market Committee&rsquo;s (FOMC) last meeting was released. While the group noted that &lsquo;many&rsquo; members thought that further progress was necessary to slow the policy cadence, shift away from certainty was unmistakable. Furthermore, &lsquo;some&rsquo; on the Committee believed QE3 could be slowed as early as the June meeting. In the end, it is not confidence of growth, but fear of disastrous side effects (a market bubble) that would ultimately encourage the shift &ndash; and such fears were also noted. This is far from confirmation of a change in bearing for the world&rsquo;s most prolific stimulator, but it offers a clear reason for doubt. And, at record price and exposure (leverage) levels, that may be enough to start the contagion.  Japanese Yen Traders See the Limits, Ill Side Effects of BoJ Stimulus  As expected, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy bearing unchanged from the already remarkable objective of increasing the country&rsquo;s money base by &yen;60-70 trillion yen a year. This serious policy move was made little over a month ago, so a period of &lsquo;wait and measure&rsquo; is to be expected. Yet, that may be little comfort for FX traders who have driving the yen down between approximately 25 percent in the span of six months &ndash; an extreme move for the liquid currency market. While pairs like AUDJPY, EURJPY and USDJPY probe multi-year highs, the carry (yield differential) that they offer are at historical lows. Capital gains through expectations of a constant bid are the only hope of real return. Meanwhile, the BoJ is facing a serious problem. With an aim to end deflation, interest rates will inevitable rise in Japan. However, the 10-year JGB yield surged a fourth day by 4 percent. It is now double its low in April. This is dangerous for a country with so much debt&hellip;  British Pound: A Round of Data and Nothing Went the Sterling&rsquo;s Way  There was plenty of fundamental fodder on the UK docket this past session, and none of it was good for the sterling. Retail sales figures dropped the most in two years (1.4 percent) while the CBI manufacturing activity trends report posted a deeper contraction than expected. What is really troublesome in these times of stimulus, the disappointing figures are unlikely to encourage more BoE support. The BoE minutes showed the same 3 MPC members were outvoted to keep policy unchanged. Coming up, watch the second read of UK 1Q GDP to see critical details.  Euro Optimism to be Tested by Recession Warning in PMI Data  As blatant as the updates on monetary policy for the UK, Japan and UK were this past session; there seems a lack of appreciation for the subtlety of Europe&rsquo;s policy regime (if few people are speculating on a change, such a move will have greater impact down the line). Worth noting though, ECB member Praet remarked on the group&rsquo;s exploration of SME (small and medium-size business) loans and quality reviews of asset backed securities. In the upcoming session, we will be reminded of Europe&rsquo;s biggest problem &ndash; recession &ndash; with the monthly PMI figures.  Australian Dollar Slides Further on Stimulus Concerns, Chinese Data  If there is a fear of risk, the Australian dollar will certainly take a brunt of the hit. This currency was already suffering while other benchmarks for sentiment &ndash; like equities &ndash; were still holding steady. A new addition to the currency&rsquo;s troubles was added this morning when the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI report for May reported a dip back into contractionary territory (49.6). A near-term rebound only works in a risk stable market.  Canadian Dollar Breaks from Multi-Year Range with Help of Retail Stats  Since October 2009, USDCAD has been guided lower by a consistent descending trendline. This past session, the pair finally closed above the high-profile technical level. The unique strength of the US dollar and general risk aversion support the break above 1.0300; and if sentiment really starts moving, that will be the catalyst for a trend. Meanwhile, the Canadian retail sales miss may hint at trouble in economic paradise.   Gold: Steady Fed and BoJ Stimulus Programs Dollar Bullish, Gold Bearish  Gold is first and foremost an alternative store of wealth for traditional fiats nowadays. That being the case, the metal found little support in the developments of the past 24 hours. Fed talk of tapering their balance sheet expansion curbs the unnatural depreciation of the world&rsquo;s reserve currency. Furthermore, the BoJ has said it would stick to the course for now and the BoE is no closer to watering down their own currency. Selling was met with the highest volume in months, an uptick in the Gold Volatility Index and ETF holdings hit a fresh multi-year low.  **For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar  ECONOMIC DATA     GMT    Currency    Release    Survey    Previous    Comments       1:00    AUD    Consumer Inflation Expectation      2.20%    RBA reduced inflation outlook between 2-3% over the next two years.        1:45    CNY    HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI    50.4    50.4    Often used as leading indicator for entire economy due to economy&rsquo;s heavy focus on manufacturing.       7:00    EUR    French Purchasing Manager Index Services    44.5    44.3    Remains contractionary; Manufacturing activities increased for 4 months amid sluggish service activities        7:00    EUR    French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing    44.7    44.4       7:30    EUR    German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing    48.5    48.1    Manufacturing activates declined for 3 months amid sluggish service activities; Continent&rsquo;s strongest member remains contractionary.        7:30    EUR    German Purchasing Manager Index Services    50    49.6       8:00    EUR    Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing    47    46.7    Ineffective easing tool and social instability (demonstration in Italy) due to austerity hurt unemployment and productivities.        8:00    EUR    Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services    47.2    47       8:00    EUR    Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite    47.2    46.9         8:30    GBP    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F)    0.30%    0.30%    Update providing details on sectors       8:30    GBP    Private Consumption    0.30%    0.40%    Stayed in positive territory for 5 months.       8:30    GBP    Government Spending    0.20%    0.60%    Negative capital expenditure for 2 months indicates weak producers&rsquo; expectation for UK economy.       8:30    GBP    Gross Fixed Capital Formation    0.30%    -0.20%       8:30    GBP    Imports    -0.90%    -1.00%    Quarterly report; the avoidance of a triple-dip recession may indicate higher export.       8:30    GBP    Exports    -1.00%    -1.60%       8:30    GBP    Total Business Investment (QoQ)      -0.80%    Quarterly report; Has declined for 4 consecutive quarters.       8:30    GBP    Total Business Investment (YoY)      0.80%       8:30    GBP    Index of Services (MoM)    0.10%    0.80%    Accounted for over 75% of UK&rsquo;s GDP; MoM data approached 6-month high.       8:30    GBP    Index of Services (3Mo3M)    0.60%    0.10%       12:30    USD    Initial Jobless Claims    345K    360K    Previously jumped to 6-week high; Typically volatile weekly data due to seasonal adjustment.       12:30    USD    Continuing Claims    3000K    3009K       12:58    USD    Markit US PMI Preliminary    51.4      Indicative of strength in manufacturing.       13:00    USD    House Price Purchase Index (QoQ)      1.40%    Steady uptrend for 4 months, most price increases were in cities that got hammered by recession the most.        13:00    USD    House Price Index (MoM)    0.80%    0.70%       14:00    EUR    Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence    -21.8    -22.3    Could be benefited from ECB rate cut.        14:00    USD    New Home Sales    425K    417K    Housing market showed strong growth amid low borrowing cost.         14:00    USD    New Home Sales (MoM)    1.90%    1.50%       15:00    USD    Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity    -4    -5    Remained negative for 7M.       22:45    NZD    Exports (New Zealand dollars)    4.06B    4.42B    Trade surplus rose to the highest level since 05/11.;Strong export and recent performance service index likely to underpin kiwi.       22:45    NZD    Imports (New Zealand dollars)    3.60B    3.70B       22:45    NZD    Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars)    480M    718M               GMT    Currency    Upcoming Events &amp; Speeches       5:00    JPY    Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table)       7:00    EUR    ECB&rsquo;s Noyer Speaks       -:-    EUR    Portugal Releases Year-to-Date Budget Report       -:-    EUR    Cyprus President Anastasiades Meets EU&rsquo;s Barroso       8:30    EUR    Spain to Sell 3, 5, and 13-Year Bonds       10:05    USD    Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London       17:30    EUR    ECB&rsquo;s Weidmann Speaks on Integration Risk       19:30    EUR    ECB President Draghi Speakes on Future of Euro Economy     SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS  To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal  To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table  CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Dollar, S&amp;amp;P 500 May Struggle to Find Upward Follow Through</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 04:12:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-s-p-500-may-struggle-to-find-upward-follow-through-87782</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/dollar-s-p-500-may-struggle-to-find-upward-follow-through-87782</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar and the S&amp;P 500 may struggle to find meaningful upward follow-through having set year-to-date highs over the past 24 hours.  US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS&ndash; Prices invalidated a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern to break above resistance at 10822, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. Buyers now target the 61.8% level at 10922, with a break above that exposing the 76.4% Fib at 11045. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upward momentum however and hints the move higher may be short-lived. The 10822 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that initially eyeing the 38.2% expansion at 10722.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  S&amp;P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS &ndash; Prices are hovering below resistance at 1676.50, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with early signs of negative RSI divergence warning a pullback may be ahead. Initial support is at 1649.60, the 100% level. A drop beneath that aims for the 76.4% expansion at 1622.70. Alternatively, a break above resistance targets the 138.2% Fib at 1693.10.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS &ndash; Prices completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support at 1348.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting at gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1402.11, the 23.6% level, with a break above that targeting the 14.6% Fib at 1434.86 and the May 3 high at 1488.00. Alternatively, a move below support eyes the 50% expansion at 1306.02.  Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS&ndash; Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 92.73, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that eyeing the 50% level at 91.31. Critical resistance is at 96.93, marked by a falling trend line set from late January.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>How to Properly Test Your New Strategy </title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 03:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/how-to-properly-test-your-new-strategy-87779</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/how-to-properly-test-your-new-strategy-87779</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Article Summary:  The benefits of fully testing a system are many. Top of the list is that a fully tested system that clearly displays all metrics of a system can give you the confidence to push your edge when a favorable market arrives. Also, a fully tested system allows you to act with machine-like accuracy as to when it may be best to cut your losses and start trading another system.   Building a trading strategy that you&rsquo;re comfortable executing is no easy feat. However, once you&rsquo;ve found the right mixture of indictors and risk management that you&rsquo;re comfortable with it comes time to test. Only with the test of your strategy will you know if the newfound strategy is worth repeating.   Why Test Your Strategy?   Successful trading systems are not as common as many would have you believe. If you walked into a local bookshop or searched successful trading systems, you would at first believe that there as many long term successful systems as there are website hits or books on the shelf. As you can imagine, just because you&rsquo;ve read something impressive at first sight doesn&rsquo;t mean the system will play out in the future as you hope.   Learn Forex: It May Look Good, But Does The Strategy Work For You?  Presented by FXCM&rsquo;s Marketscope Charts  It&rsquo;s been said, wisely, that no one cares as much about the outcome of your trading as you do. Because you alone (unless you manage money) have to live with the results, you should focus on properly testing any strategy that you&rsquo;re looking to employ. This will ensure that you only trade strategies that have passed your due diligence as opposed to something that sounded good when you first heard it.   How to Test?   First, you want to have a set of rules to follow. Second, a flow chart can help you lay out a process from pre to post-trade. Lastly, you want to follow the rules with machine like precision to test the system appropriately.  When trading, there are two methods or avenues that you can choose to test a strategy. You can choose either a demo environment with no real money at risk or a live environment with a sample amount of trading capital. Testing a strategy with real capital allows you to get a feel for how your emotions mend with the new strategy.   Of course, you can exercise both options by first testing your strategy on a demo and then moving a relatively small live account. Once on a live account with your new strategy, it may be best to trade one contract at a time and only increase your trade size should you receive a new signal or you see marked success with your strategy. However, by limiting your trade size in a testing period, you&rsquo;re allowing yourself to focus on the validity of the system vs. your day p/l which isn&rsquo;t what your testing time is about.    Learn Forex: Be Precise About Your Test Criteria  Presented by FXCM&rsquo;s Marketscope Charts  What To Look For After The Test Sample Is Completed?   Because trading is about managing probabilities, it&rsquo;s helpful to see if the consensus of your sample meets your criteria of a valid system. Here is a list of 7 fields that you should consider when testing a system&rsquo;s effectiveness:   Total Net Profit: Profitability irrespective of the risk taken. This is a positive or negative number that shows the net p/l of the system over a fixed number of trades. Many traders stop here which can be a big mistake because a large profit can be achieved in the short term by taking excessive risk. However, excessive risk on a long enough time line can lead to eventual ruin which we must avoid.  Number of Trades: Total number of trades will show you the validity of a system&rsquo;s results. All things being equal, a test with a higher number of trades should be given more weight because it shows how it performed over many signals.  Average Duration of Trade: Duration of trade will tell you how long a trade was in the market. This is important because a trade in the market is tying up required margin. If you&rsquo;re a short term trader and the average duration of the system&rsquo;s trades are longer than your preference then it may be best to adjust the system and start testing again or find a new system.  Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown will display the maximum peak-to-valley drawdown during the test period. In other words, a trade taken at the absolute worst time (buying at a top or selling at a bottom) delivered how big of a hit to equity. Max drawdown will also give you a good view as to how much equity you need to trade with to allow this system to trade appropriately.   Maximum Consecutive Losses: Consecutive losses help you see how many consecutively losing trades were endured through the test. The benefit of knowing the consecutive losses number ahead of time is to help you keep your sight on the overall prize as opposed to being discouraged to the point of quitting if an arbitrary number of stops are hit. Knowing this can be especially helpful to trend followers whose major profits happen on a handful of trades.   Profit Loss Ratio (P:L): P:L helps you see average profit to average loss ratio. Naturally, the higher the number the better because a large positive number shows you profits overcoming losses. Trend followers often have higher p:l ratios while short term range traders often have higher win %.   Percent Winners: Percentage of winning trades. This helps you see the edge of your system when the market environment aligns. This number is best when combined with a positive P:L ratio.   You can create a simple excel spreadsheet to house all of this data. The sheet should include the strategy name and market conditions needed to operate along with these fields. When the conditions align, you can go to your strategy sheet to see which is best for you.   Closing Thoughts  When developing a system, less is more. Trading with the simplest rules possible while still having an edge leads to a higher probability that you will stick with the system in a favorable environment. A simple system will also likely have a higher propensity to display results similar to the tested period given the parameters of the test align with the current environment.   Happy Trading!   ---Written by Tyler Yell, Trading Instructor  To contact Tyler, email tyell@fxcm.com.  To be added to Tyler&rsquo;se-mail distribution list, please click here.  Would you like dozens of trade ideas every day with updated charts to identify major levels of support and resistance on the currency pair you&rsquo;re trading?  If so, register for a free trial of our Technical Analyzer here and you&rsquo;ll be provided with a free temporary login on the last page of the walk-through.   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>GBP/USD Short Held as Prices Clear Second Target</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 02:39:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-short-held-as-prices-clear-second-target-87780</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-short-held-as-prices-clear-second-target-87780</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.5536, Targeting Below 1.5029  Floating Profit / Loss: +512 pips  We entered short GBPUSD at 1.5533. Prices have now met our second objective to test the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.5029. We will continue to hold short, looking for a daily close below this barrier to expose the 50% level at 1.4850. The stop-loss has been revised to trigger on a close above 1.5322, the May 16 swing high.   Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0  --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com  To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak  To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE  New to FX? Watch this Video. For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Forex: Did Bernanke Light the Fuse for a S&amp;amp;P 500 Reversal, Dollar Surge?</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 02:21:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-did-bernanke-light-the-fuse-for-a-s-p-500-reversal-dollar-surge-87781</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/forex-did-bernanke-light-the-fuse-for-a-s-p-500-reversal-dollar-surge-87781</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[ Traders recognized early talk of tempering the Federal Reserve's support of the capital markets this past session and the immediate response was one of panic. A direct benefactor of assumed, limitless support from the central bank, the S&amp;P 500 - a effigy of general risk trends - marked its biggest intraday reversal in 20 months to post an ominous close off record highs. Meanwhile, the safe haven and supply-demand balance of stimulus US dollar punched higher to extend an already impressive climb from these past few weeks. Yet, this is the first blush. Has fear genuinely set in after having heard Fed Chairman Bernanke's rhetoric and the FOMC minutes' disclosure of debate on the timing of QE3 'tapering'? Major trade setups depend on this critical and delicate fundamental balance. We discuss these themes and their trade implications in today's video Use the DailyFX-Plus Technical Analyzer to identify possible trade setups.  Sign up for John&rsquo;s email distribution list, here.   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Aussie Falls On Contractionary Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 02:08:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aussie-falls-on-contractionary-chinese-hsbc-flash-manufacturing-pmi-87777</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aussie-falls-on-contractionary-chinese-hsbc-flash-manufacturing-pmi-87777</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  The Takeaway: Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction to 49.5-&gt; Slowing Chinese growth signals risk for Australian exports and possible further rate cuts-&gt; AUD/USD declined  The Australian Dollar declined against all of its counterparts on the disappointing Chinese HSBC Flash manufacturing PMI. The preliminary measurement of manufacturing activity fell to 49.6 in May compared with a final reading of 50.4 in April.The figure came in well shy of estimate set for 50.4.   The worse-than-expected preliminary PMI suggests the manufacturing sector in China is in contraction, which is in line with the lower-than-expected gross domestic productivity for the first quarter. As China is a key source of demand for Australian pivotal mining sector, it carries significant negative implication on the RBA growth forecast as well as its rate decision at their future meetings. Given the RBA has cut its benchmark interest rate to 2.75 percent this month, further rate cuts would certainly diminish the demand for the high-yielding Australian dollar. Currently, market is pricing in a 15 percent probability that the RBA will cut interest rate in their next meeting on June 4, according to Credit Suisse overnight index swap.  Besides its direct implications for the Aussie, the Australian dollar was earlier restrained as Fed&rsquo;s Ben Bernanke signaled the possibility of a reduction in bond purchases in the next few meetings. Consequently, risk appetite receded and high-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar declined against most counterparts. Upon the release, the AUD/USD shed as many as 33 pips and as the time of writing, the currency pair is trading at 0.96394.   AUD/USD 1-Minute Chart  Chart Created by Robin Leung using Marketscope 2.0   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Bernanke and the Dollar Rally Take the Stand</title>
				<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 02:00:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/bernanke-and-the-dollar-rally-take-the-stand-87778</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/bernanke-and-the-dollar-rally-take-the-stand-87778</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Today&rsquo;s testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be the focal point of the markets and could have the power to cause breakouts in major pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and others.   Currencies and equities were trading higher ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Wednesday testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be released on the same day, we believe Bernanke&rsquo;s monetary policy bias will be the main driver of US dollar (USD) flows.   Bernanke's views will give us a good sense of whether the market's expectations for tapering quantitative easing (QE) are overblown. Based on the relentless rally in the US dollar over the past month, investors are pricing in a major change in Fed policy, and Bernanke's comments could either support or end the dollar rally.   See also: The #1 Threat to the Dollar Rally This Week  Based on the latest comments from FOMC voters William Dudley (New York) and James Bullard (St. Louis), there's no clear support for tapering asset purchases. Dudley and Bullard are on two opposite sides of the dove/hawk scale, and yet Dudley says that he's not sure if the next move in QE will be up or down, while Bullard says he doesn't see a good case for tapering asset purchases unless inflation rises.    The ball is now in Bernanke's court, and if the Fed Chairman drops even the smallest hint that he supports reducing bond buying&mdash;either by talking about it directly or sounding more optimistic about the outlook for the US economy&mdash;the dollar could hit new highswith USDJPY likely reaching the 104.00 handle.  If he sticks to the script, the dollar should weaken with EURUSD likely rallying to 1.3000 and USD/JPY dropping to 102.00.  As one of the more dovish members of the FOMC, Bernanke will be careful with his choice of words. We don't expect the Fed chief to openly say that the economy has improved enough to warrant changes in monetary policy, and while we don't expect Bernanke to kill the dollar's rally intentionally, his caution could lead to profit taking.    In the long run, we expect more gains in the greenback relative to other currencies, but the FOMC minutes and Bernanke's testimony pose a double threat to the dollar rally on Wednesday. Aside from those event risks, existing home sales are also scheduled for release.  British Pound (GBP) Gets a Scare  Tuesday&rsquo;s worst-performing currency against the euro (EUR) and US dollar was the British pound (GBP), which tanked after softer inflation reports. Both consumer and producer prices surprised to the downside with PPI input and output declining in the month of April and consumer price growth slowing to 0.2% from 0.3%. This cut the year-over-year rise to 2.4%, which is the lowest level of inflation since October 2012. The equally large decline in core prices confirmed that the decline in inflation is genuine, and for the Bank of England (BoE), this puts additional easing back on the table because it seems that CPI may undershoot the BoE's expectations.    However, the real key to additional stimulus lies in the performance of the economy, which got a scare from Wednesday&rsquo;s horrid UK retail sales report, which printed at -1.3% versus 0.0% forecast. This was the worst reading since April 2012 and was driven by a sharp drop in food store sales and weak sales of summer items due to bad weather conditions. Some of the decline may have been seasonal, but the overall number suggests UK consumer demand remains weak, and despite the recent spate of better-than-expected economic numbers, the UK economy remains vulnerable to further contraction.  In addition, the BoE monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting minutes revealed a surprisingly dovish stance, with three of of the nine members continuing to vote for more QE. With UK pricing pressures clearly receding, the prospect for more QE has increased, especially if the economic data begins to wobble again. The GBPUSD reacted negatively to the news, dropping below the 1.5100 level. The pair may test the 1.5000 figure later today if the dollar catches a bid.  EUR/USD on Breakout Watch  For the fifth consecutive trading day, the EURUSD remained stuck in a range, trading between 1.28 and 1.2950. The lack of market-moving Eurozone data early this week restricted movements in the shared currency.   Lower price pressures will most likely keep the European Central Bank (ECB) dovish, but the key to additional easing is not inflation, but economic performance. Eurozone current account numbers are due for release on Wednesday, and with German and French balances increasing in March, the Eurozone figures should show improvement as well.   EU Leaders will be holding a summit in Brussels on Wednesday as well, so watch for headlines related to the economy. While the EUR/USD has consolidated above 1.28, key Fed events could drive it out of this range with volatility continuing into Thursday and Friday on the back of Eurozone PMI numbers, a speech from ECB President Mario Draghi, and the German IFO report.    In other words, don't get too comfortable with the recent range-bound trading in the euro, as a breakout could be right around the corner.  The Main Takeaway from the RBA Minutes  After a one-day respite, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and Canadian dollar (CAD) resumed their slide against the greenback while the Australian dollar (AUD) steadied. A decline in Australian leading indicators and benign Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes prevented the AUD from enjoying a stronger recovery.    The minutes did not provide much in the way of guidance on future monetary policy, but the central bank's careful choice of words suggests that there is room for more stimulus. The RBA statement indicated the "inflation outlook would afford scope to ease further" and they decided to use "some of that scope" to ease still.   The main takeaway from the RBA minutes is that the strength of the Australian dollar in April was the primary motivation for their decision to cut interest rates. Aside from constricting export activity, the rise in the currency also reduces inflationary pressures, giving the central bank the flexibility they need to ease monetary policy.    Since then, the AUDUSD has fallen aggressively, losing approximately 800 pips from its April high and making the currency far less of a concern these days. Therefore, another rate cut by the RBA would probably require material deterioration in economic data.   Meanwhile, the NZDUSD shrugged off stronger credit card spending numbers.  By Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/?symbol=EUR/USD  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Are You Watching This Major Warning Sign For S&amp;amp;P 500 Top?</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:15:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/are-you-watching-this-major-warning-sign-for-s-p-500-top-87766</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/are-you-watching-this-major-warning-sign-for-s-p-500-top-87766</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Summary: The Australian Dollar (ticker: FXA) has tumbled despite record-highs in the S&amp;P 500 (ticker: SPY). Is the Aussie currency the canary in the coal mine, and does it point to a big S&amp;P pullback?  Strong bull markets in stocks have historically coincided with Australian Dollar(ticker: FXA)strength, and indeed the 2009 lows in the S&amp;P 500 (ticker: SPY) occurred almost exactly as the AUDUSD established a lasting bottom. Yet a critical divergence suggests a key S&amp;P top may be near.   Last week we highlighted the fact that the sharp divergence between AUDUSD and S&amp;P 500 could partly be explained by a sharp drop in Australian yields (ticker: AUD). But nothing moves in a vacuum&mdash;we can&rsquo;t ignore the same factors that move yields should be the factors that move equity markets. Indeed, we argue that a bigger correction in bond markets (ticker: TLH) could be a major catalyst to spark a much larger US Dollar rally.   The question becomes simple: is the Australian Dollar the so-called &ldquo;canary in the coal mine&rdquo;? Or in simpler terms, does the Australian Dollar sell-off point to an imminent correction in stocks?    Australian Dollar Plotted Against Relative Moves in S&amp;P 500, Gold (ticker: GLD)  Data source: Bloomberg, Chart source: R   We&rsquo;re big fans of Dow Theory here at DailyFX, a set of six basic rules derived by Charles Dow that date back nearly 120 years. One of the most important rules is &ldquo;Stock market averages must confirm each other.&rdquo; And though we&rsquo;re talking about currencies and stocks, we feel it&rsquo;s still relevant here. In fact, our Senior Technical Strategist pointed out a critical divergence between EURUSD (ticker: FXE) and USDCHF (ticker: FXF) that preceded the substantial EURUSD sell-off and USDCHF surge.  The fact that the S&amp;P 500 (and broader global equity indices) are hitting record-peaks as the Australian Dollar and commodity markets sell off sharply is a major warning sign. But it&rsquo;s likewise clear that the only factor that really matters in trading is time.   We&rsquo;re probably right in calling for a potentially significant S&amp;P 500 pullback, but the critical question is &ldquo;When?&rdquo; If it happens after the S&amp;P rallies another 100 big points, we won&rsquo;t be in a great position to take advantage. Let&rsquo;s see if trader sentiment can give us some clues. We&rsquo;ll start with the Australian Dollar:  Retail Sentiment Favors Continued Australian Dollar Weakness  Data source: FXCM Execution Desk, Weekly Sentiment Table  It&rsquo;s rare that we use such hyperbole in our research, but we recently wrote &ldquo;Australian Dollar Direction Couldn&rsquo;t Be Any More Clear&rdquo; as the number of retail traders long AUDUSD recently hit record-highs. We use our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data as a contrarian signal to price action: if everyone&rsquo;s long, we like to sell and vice versa. Such incredibly one-sided sentiment leaves us plainly in favor of continued Aussie Dollar declines. What about the S&amp;P?  Retail CFD Speculators Are Extremely Short SPX500  This one requires a bit of a leap of faith: retail CFD speculators are essentially their most short the SPX500 contract on record. But&mdash;and this is an important caveat&mdash;we&rsquo;ve recently seen a noteworthy build in crowd buying. According to our sample of retail traders, the number of long orders has surged by nearly 60 percent in the past 30 days.   In the interests of full disclosure, we made the same observation in Thursday&rsquo;s weekly SSI report and yet the SPX500 has moved to fresh highs. Yet we&rsquo;ll once again defer to Dow Theory&mdash;there are three phases in market trends: accumulation, public participation, and distribution.   In plain English, a trend begins as traders &ldquo;in the know&rdquo; accumulate (buy) shares/currencies/whatever and push price higher. The second phase is when the public sees the trend and rushes to buy so as not to miss the &ldquo;obvious&rdquo; profit opportunity&mdash;Elliott Wave fans might call this a &ldquo;Wave 5&rdquo;. The third phase is simple enough: the market trend comes to a potentially violent end as everyone rushes for the exits.  Our proprietary retail speculative sentiment data warns that we might be in Phase 2 of this S&amp;P 500 move as the public finally shows itself willing to buy into record peaks. We&rsquo;re speaking in terms of Dow Theory, but it could just as easily be explained in any terms you like&mdash;once the crowd gets involved we&rsquo;re almost certainly closer to the top than the bottom.  Another few factoids worth considering: the S&amp;P 500 rally has been its most consistent since important March, 2012 peaks and other key market tops. All the while, a key break higher in Australian Dollar volatility prices suggests the AUDUSD may have considerably more room to fall.   Is the Australian Dollar the canary in the coal mine? Certainly S&amp;P 500 bulls might want to reconsider their portofolio weights given that typically-correlated markets such as the AUD or even Gold/Crude Oil/other commodities fail to hit similar peaks.   Forex Correlations SummaryView forex correlations to the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P Volatility Index (ticker: VXX), Crude Oil (ticker: USO) Futures prices, US 2-Year Treasury Yields (ticker: SHY), and Spot Gold prices in the past 30 days:   Data source: Bloomberg. Chart source: R  SEE GUIDE ON READING THE ABOVE CHART  --- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Receive future special reports on the Australian Dollar and other studies via this author&rsquo;s e-mail distribution list with this link.   David specializes in automated trading strategies. Find out more about our automated sentiment-based strategies on DailyFX PLUS.Contact and follow David via Twitter: https://twitter.com/DRodriguezFX http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/aud-usd/2013/05/16/ssi_aud-usd.html  ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USDOLLAR Trades into Upward Sloping Elliott Channel</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usdollar-trades-into-upward-sloping-elliott-channel-87776</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usdollar-trades-into-upward-sloping-elliott-channel-87776</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily    Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using   Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis:  A major breakout could be underway from above 10558.  Strength above the long term channel suggests acceleration of the rally that began at the 2011 low.  This could be EXTREMELY significant.  Price has reached the Elliott channel for 5th wave estimation however so don&rsquo;t be surprised to see at least consolidation if not a deeper setback from current levels.  Considering that the USDJPY is responsible for most of the rally in recent months, a USDJPY turn may be closer than many think.      FOREX Trading Strategy: Flat  LEVELS: 10715 10760 10815 10882 11000 11267  --- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com  To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com.&nbsp; Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele  Subscribe to Jamie Saettele'sdistribution list in order to receive actionable FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.  Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Crude Takes a Dive off of Trendline</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/crude-takes-a-dive-off-of-trendline-87775</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/crude-takes-a-dive-off-of-trendline-87775</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  Commodity Analysis: Crude is once again trading at the trendline that extends off of highs since September 2012.  This is the 7th week since September that the line has been tested.  It seems unlikely that the level won&rsquo;t give way eventually and send crude towards the line that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 highs near 103-104.  Near term pattern is sloppy though and clarity is needed before a stand can be taken.   Commodity Trading Strategy:  Flat  LEVELS: 90.09 92.11 93.34 95.46 96.41 97.65    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>GBP/USD Trades into 4/4 Low; Risk for Bears Down to 1.5160</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-trades-into-4-4-low-risk-for-bears-down-to-1-5160-87774</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/gbp-usd-trades-into-4-4-low-risk-for-bears-down-to-1-5160-87774</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: The GBPUSD continues to get hit.  Price dropped all the way to the 4/4 low today.  The intraday spike into 1.5155 is the new risk level.  The 78.6% retracement of the advance from 1.4830 is of interest just under 1.5000 but the close of the March low day at 1.4900 is viewed as more significant.         FOREX Trading Strategy: Continue moving stop down on whatever shorts are left&hellip;stop is now 1.5160.  Exit at 1.4900 if reached this week.    LEVELS: 1.4901 1.4985 1.5018 1.5083 1.5112 1.5163   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>EUR/USD Takes a Hit after Tagging Elliott Channel   </title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-takes-a-hit-after-tagging-elliott-channel-87773</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/eur-usd-takes-a-hit-after-tagging-elliott-channel-87773</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: Bigger picture, a EURUSD head and shoulders top would be confirmed on a drop below 1.2743.  Only above 1.3028 would suggest something bigger on the upside.  Wrote Tuesday that &ldquo;a final push into Elliott channel resistance (dashed line) and specifically 1.2948 (where the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs) isn&rsquo;t out of the question before a run at 1.2744/96.&rdquo;  The EURUSD spiked all the way into 1.2997 and reversed violently.  Look towards 1.2796.     FOREX Trading Strategy:  No change from yesterday &ndash; &ldquo;With the rally into 1.3028, reward/risk is favorable against 1.3028 for a run at 1.2796 and maybe 1.2744.  Be careful about pressing the short side below 1.2796 however&hellip;a drop to there could complete 5 waves down from 1.3242.  This is why the target is for listed as below 1.2796.&rdquo;  LEVELS: 1.2744 1.2795 1.2833 1.2900 1.29971.3028   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>NZD/USD .8052 Not Quite Reached  </title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-8052-not-quite-reached-87772</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/nzd-usd-8052-not-quite-reached-87772</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis:  &ldquo;The NZDUSD is in a situation similar to that of the AUDUSD.  Another low (drop below .8060) is possible but exceeding Tuesday&rsquo;s high opens up .8260/71.  Longer term downside interest remains .7914, .7806 and especially .7640/50.  The latter level is a trendline intersection in mid-June and the 78.6% retracement.&rdquo; Downside may be in the cards for another few days but the new low satisfies 5 waves down from .8585 (which is probably wave 3 of a 5 wave decline from .8675), which increases the risk of a bounce back towards .8212.     FOREXTrading Strategy:  Moved from bearish to flat today.        LEVELS: .7807 .7914 .8052 .8117 .8212 .8271   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/JPY New High; But NOT New Closing High</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-new-high-but-not-new-closing-high-87771</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-jpy-new-high-but-not-new-closing-high-87771</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  4Hour  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: No change: &ldquo;The break above 99.94 was from a triangle (with an exceptionally shallow E wave).  Breaks from triangles are often terminal so this may be the final run before a stronger decline.  The width of the triangle (99.94-95.79) can also be used to determine an objective.  Add the width to the breakout level and you get 104.09.  Since 5/14, the advance has been characterized by waning momentum.&rdquo;    FOREXTrading Strategy: Considering how one-sided the psychology of this market is&hellip;a drop could accelerate quickly as those late to the game exit simultaneously.  Would be short below 101.90.  LEVELS: 100.78 101.82 102.40 104.08 104.62 105.92   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>AUD/USD Finally Takes Out .9700 </title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-finally-takes-out-9700-87770</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/aud-usd-finally-takes-out-9700-87770</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: &ldquo;The AUDUSD is quickly approaching its .9605 target&hellip;this is where the decline from under 1.0114 would equal the width of the 1.0624-1.0114 range.  However, be careful near term as a print below .9710 could complete a 5th wave and give way to another corrective advance.  Not to mention, .9700 is the 88.6% retracement, 5/23/12 low, and close of the low day for 2012 (June 1st).&rdquo;  We got that print.  .9605 is still possible but so too is a rally back towards .9840 or higher.    FOREXTrading Strategy:  Moved from bearish to flat today.      LEVELS: .9553 .9580 .9605 .9750 .9841 .9918   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>Drop Daily Range is Large but End of Day Little Changed</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/drop-daily-range-is-large-but-end-of-day-little-changed-87769</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/drop-daily-range-is-large-but-end-of-day-little-changed-87769</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Weekly  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  Commodity Analysis: Gold didn&rsquo;t quite trade to new lows but silver did on Monday.  Non-confirmations (divergences) of price extremes between related assets often mark market turns or at least the beginning of a reversal pattern.  Gold&rsquo;s low was also at a downward sloping trend channel.  It&rsquo;s best to turn neutral.  Commodity Trading Strategy: Flat  LEVELS: 1307 1322 1354 1420 1439 1470    ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CHF Channel Breakthrough; Support at .9760</title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-channel-breakthrough-support-at-9760-87768</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-chf-channel-breakthrough-support-at-9760-87768</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Daily  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis: An inverse head and shoulders pattern that began exactly 8 months ago (9/14/12) was confirmed last week in the USDCHF.   The target from the pattern is 1.0111.  In the &lsquo;year of the breakout&rsquo;, ignore such patterns at your own risk.  The top side of the pattern&rsquo;s neckline served as support last Thursday and price has tested corrective channel resistance on 3 days since last Wednesday.  The break above the channel suggests that the rally is accelerating (the blue channel is a microcosm of the black channel).  .9760 is now support and bull risk is moved up to .9645.  If price fails to hold .9645, then .9570 becomes estimated support.   FOREXTrading Strategy: Bullish above .9645 with 1.0100 target.  LEVELS: .9653 .9715 .9760 .9898 .9971 1.0100   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>USD/CAD Multiyear Trendline at about 1.0425 This Week  </title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 22:09:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-multiyear-trendline-at-about-1-0425-this-week-87767</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/usd-cad-multiyear-trendline-at-about-1-0425-this-week-87767</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Weekly  Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0  Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?  FOREXAnalysis:  &ldquo;The USDCAD decline from the March high consists of 2 equal legs, which is characteristic of corrections.  The suggestion is that the larger trend is up&hellip;as long as price is above 1.0012.  Strength above the internal trendline that extends off of the March and early April high is promising.&rdquo;  The upward sloping inverse head and shoulders pattern played out last week with price reaching the 1.0290 target and focus is now on a multiyear trendline at about 1.0425 this week.  FOREXTrading Strategy: Flat  LEVELS: 1.0216 1.0295 1.0330 1.0425 1.0514 1.0545   ]]></description>
                                </item><item>
				<title>A EUR/CHF Move That May Never Happen Again </title>
				<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 19:30:00 +0100</pubDate>
				<link>http://www.forexspace.com/news/a-eur-chf-move-that-may-never-happen-again-87765</link>
				<guid>http://www.forexspace.com/news/a-eur-chf-move-that-may-never-happen-again-87765</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[  Changing economic conditions in Europe and globally are likely to cause the EUR/CHF to top close to 1.30, at which point the Swiss franc may be reborn as a risk currency and grow continually stronger, never to see 1.30 again.   The Swiss franc(CHF) continues to weaken, but we think that the EURCHF might put in a top close to 1.30 in the coming months. After that, the franc should slowly improve again because it will become a sort of&ldquo;risk-on&rdquo; currency.  As a basis, you should understand that the Swiss franc has four main drivers:   Safe-haven flows against the European debt crisis due to strong Swiss ties with Germany   Stronger long-term growth potential thanks to immigration, a brain-drain from other European countries to Switzerland, and a strong housing market   Proxy for the strength of the Chinese and other emerging markets (similar to gold and the Australian dollar) via foreign profits of Swiss multinationals   Anti-US-dollar investment (similar to gold) thanks to the wealth of Swiss firms and investors   Points 2 and 3 speak towards CHF as a risk-on currency, and point 1 for a safe haven, although we have learned that gold is not always a truly &ldquo;safe&rdquo; haven. (Learn more about the drivers of CHF movement on SNBCHF.com.)  Reasons Why EUR/CHF Could Touch 1.30   Excessive optimism and risk appetite in the United States thanks to the Fed's support of the housing market via QE3 and the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS)   A side effect of the Fed's MBS purchases is the "spectacular reduction of the US deficit" thanks to the falling liabilities of Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac and higher corporate tax receipts   Simple equivalence: An improving US housing market boosts stock markets, which boosts US consumer sentiment (at least for the upper third of the population)   Thanks to the Washington consensus-style implementation of harsh austerity, Fitch upgraded the Greek rating. Other rating upgrades might follow   Massive improvements inEurozone trade balances thanks to US spending and European austerity measures   This year's &ldquo;sell in May&rdquo; effect is only visible in the weaker Australian dollar, but not in stocks. This is exceptional and a one-off movement. China, other emerging markets, and Germany are weaker due to lower exports to the austerity-stricken Eurozone and stronger competition from Japanese firms due to the (one-off) yen depreciation. Weak oil prices and low inflation also helped stocks to achieve all-time highs   Year-over-year improvements in the non-manufacturing ISM index.Thanks to the services and construction components, this index is not hampered by the strong dollar. Non-manufacturing ISM is rising thanks to spending, and manufacturing ISM is falling due to the strong dollar   Reasons Why the 1.30 Is the Likely Top for EUR/CHF  Inflation differences between the Eurozone and Switzerland will narrow. Due to falling or stagnating wages in the Southern Eurozone, the gap has narrowed from 4% to 1.7% in one year, and the HICP difference to France or Italy is 1.4%. This movement will continue.  Guest Commentary: Inflation to Cap EUR/CHF  Once EURCHF touches the area of 1.28 to 1.30, the Swiss CPI will incorporate most FX changes two months later through a 27% import share. Then, Swiss inflation could be higher than the SwissNational Bank (SNB) inflation path, so the Bank might need to exit the floor and potentially hike rates well ahead of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB). When exactly depends on the speed of the global recovery.  Current US growth is mostly based on Fed-induced spending and investments that left the Eurozone (Germany included) driven by fear and low expected returns(see the Gross Private Investment figures below).   New US jobs followed spending and investments. This capital movement from East to West might reverse soon. Chinese foreign direct investments (FDIs) are already positive after one year of outflows.  Guest Commentary: Changing GDP Growth Trends   At the latest,the dollar (and probably stocks) should weaken again when the 2014 &ldquo;Sell in May&rdquo; tendency sets in again, and the Swiss franc will grow stronger at that point.  We currently see a continued weakening of US industrial production due to the strong dollar, which is also visible in the weak ISM Manufacturing data above.   Historical examples (e.g. Latin America) show that Washington consensus compromises will trigger a strong first-/second-year performance because austerity only helps at first. Spreads initially come down and rating agencies upgrade the concerned countries. This is exactly what happened to Greece. However, due to emigration, low spending, and underwater-mortgages, Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese growth will be hampered for many more years.  SNB sight deposits are still stable. This is a hint that the Bank is not able to sell many FX reserves. The SNB balance sheet seems to be well-alimented by profit repatriations and new cash savings.  The rising EURCHF exchange rate is only visible in the derivative instruments component of the balance of payments. These derivatives and FX traders' bets are notobvious on the SNB balance sheet.  The very important Swiss private investors seem to prefer to keep cash or buy Swiss stocks and houses; they do not buy European investments. The Swiss stock market is near all-time highs, and according to UBS, Swiss real estate is in a risk zone.  At the latest, from May 2014 on, the EURCHF should not rise over 1.30 again, because inflation rates might be similar in the Eurozone and in Switzerland, just that Swiss GDP growth, and, in particular, Swiss construction activity, will be higher over many years.  Guest Commentary:  Swiss vs. Overall Eurozone Growth  It is crucial that EURCHF hits 1.30 as soon as possible. With time, the inflation difference will further shrink.  SNB Acts Like a Hedge Fund, Not a Central Bank  The SNB might sell some reserves until the end of 2013. In a couple of years, however, the Bank might be forced to sell euros around 1.20 or even lower due to inflation pressures. In the meantime, the Bank must earn income to prevent future losses. Therefore, it acts like a hedge fund and invests cyclically, not like a central bank that tends to act rather counter-cyclically. An example would be the strong equity purchases in 2012/2013 and the reduction of the bond share in 2012.  Investment Recommendations  Mid-term: Buy EUR/CHF at Current Levels  Buy EURCHF at current levels near 1.24 and as a hedge (yen-denominated) against Japanese equities, something the SNB liked as an investment in Q1.  (See also the Elliott Wave explanation for buying EUR/CHFon SNBCHF.com. This fits our fundamental arguments, and the 1.30 level would be a somewhat stronger retracement in wave C.)  Daytraders: Trade Long and Short US Dollar  In the upcoming month, any fundamental data related to US manufacturing should be rather negative for the US dollar, and any event related to housing or sentiment rather negative.  Pay attention to Fed statements that range from reducing QE3 to even lower and exceptionally low rates for 5-10 years. The Fed should see that stronger growth happens where the "hot money" is flowing. Until recently, the target has been the United States. If, however, the US does not exhibit better growth figures, then these funds will move away to Germany or the emerging markets that have more sustainable growth thanks to current account surpluses and/or lower wages.  P.S. I failed to mention the case that weaker European countries or even France might leave the Eurozone in 5-10 years to obtain their "printing presses" back. Thanks to the masses of German bonds on the SNB balance sheet, EUR/CHF will surely move over 1.30 again if that happened.   By George Dorgan of SNBCHF.com   ]]></description>
                                </item></channel>
			</rss>